Review: Transformers - War for Cybertron Siege: Episode 6

Will the robots zombies defeat the Autobots?  Will Optimus be able to reach the Allspark?  Will Bumblebee, Arcee and Cog escape from Soundblaster with their stolen energon?  Will they even survive with their lives intact?

It was cliffhanger city at the end of the last episode, so let's jump straight in.

The Autobots do indeed take some damage from the robot zombies, the so-called "Sparkless" and their seemingly unmotivated attack; while Optimus focuses on the Allspark, which is tantalisingly out of reach. No, wait, it's actually within reach, and just considerably smaller than it appears.  Moonracer (AKA Sergeant RedShirt) makes the ultimate sacrifice for the cause.  Optimus reaches the Allspark, and his contact with it causes all the Sparkless to disintegrate to dust.  Too easy, much too easy.

Impactor, Sideswipe and team have to protect the spacebridge from the Decepticon seekers.  Will they make it?

And will Bumblebee's heist succeed, or will Soundblaster's army of mercenaries get them?  Well, Cog is fast enough and accurate enough to take out Soundblaster's troops, while they suffer from Stormtrooper Syndrome and collectively fail to hit the heroes once.  Bumblebee gets another vision from the Alpha Trion protocols and is inconveniently incapacitated while they try to make their getaway.  No problem, Arcee pulls him out of the driving seat of the escape vehicle (because they can't transform into vehicles of their own, obviously) and sets off at speed.

This massively convoluted plan might just work.  The Ark, fully charged up with the energon that Bumblebee stole, flies to the Spacebridge.  I've given up trying to understand what's going on here, except that maybe they're going to rescue the team that was fixing it?  The spacebridge activates just in time, while Elita-1 (who, I'm sorry, but she permanently sounds like she's complaining) 

Optimus delays the inevitable Decepticon attack, while he and Megatron have a philosophical debate.  Optimus is going to destroy Cybertron; Megatron is going to enslave it.  Megatron steals the Allspark from Optimus; Bumblebee immediately steals it back.  The Decepticons mount their attack (they have a recurring problem with their shooting accuracy which is laughable, when they even remember to fire their weapons) and it takes the arrival of Omega Supreme to help the Autobots launch the Allspark into the Spacebridge, and get the Ark off the planet.  Elita-1 (still complaining) says she must stay behind to protect the launch of the Ark, while Omega Supreme seems to be doing a perfectly good job of that himself, towering over the Decepticons.  The Ark also has a wide range of weapons which have been sitting idle all through the series, and which are also fully capable of keeping the Decepticons at bay.

So:  Optimus throws the Allspark into the Spacebridge, and then the Autobots (including Optimus) fly the Ark into the Spacebridge, abandoning Cybertron to the Decepticons, and a fraction of the Autobots (including Elita 1, Chromia, Red Alert and Jetfire).

This was a chaotic and strange episode:  it did draw all the previous storylines together and make them work together, but it had some very strange gaps in it:

- Why didn't the Autobots take the Allspark with them in the Ark?  Why launch it separately?  Flinging it into the spacebridge and then flying after it in the Ark makes as much sense as firing a bullet up (or throwing a ball) into the air, and then trying to run and catch it, instead of just carrying it with you and running.  It made no sense.

- The Decepticon virus incapacitated all Autobot systems but didn't damage the Autobots themselves?  And didn't affect the Ark?

- The Sparkless robot zombies?  Why, oh why?

Overall, I have to say that I did enjoy this series.  The visuals were as good, or even better, than any other visualisation of the Transformers that we've seen - with the exception of the Bumblebee movie.  The characterisations were good, although I'd have given Elita-1 slightly more personality other than cynical pessimistic moaner.  Megatron was very well written, and actually derives sympathy for his cause (compared to Ultra Magnus who was such an optimist that he thought he could go and speak with Megatron and expect to leave Decepticon HQ alive, and instead ended up helping Megatron's plans).

The new series starts on 30 December, which is a few days away from now (hence I'm writing this in readiness for the new episodes).  The final episode here ends with Teletraan 1 detecting an alien space vessel.  Opinions are divided in our household, between either Earth space vessels, or the Decepticon Nemesis.  Hopefully it'll be more than meets the eye.

Review: Transformers War For Cyberton: Siege: Episode 5

At the end of the last episode, we saw Bumblebee receive the Alpha Trion protocols, meaning that he'll be a prominent character in this series (although I truly wish he wasn't).  However, things improve for the storyline overall with Soundwave making a valuable contribution; I wish they'd kept his voice closer to the original 1980s cartoon series, but the new version will suffice.  Soundwave tracks the Alpha Trion protocols and the network they used to move around the planet.  Shockwave has a 'secret experiment' which can use this network and bring it down.  The virus will destroy all processors and mainframes that use the Autobot code; this would deny the Autobots one of their key advantages (although the collateral damage will be significant).

Will the Decepticons go ahead with a plan to destroy an Autobot advantage, even if it causes widespread damage to Cybertron's infrastructure?  Did they wreck Sherman Dam??  You may not enjoy the story, but the visuals remain outstanding.

Say, "Cheese!"

Meanwhile, Jetfire is trying to defect to the Autobots, having realised that Megatron is bent on genocide, and that's too strong for his taste.  Jetfire's ideals conflict with Megatron's, and Megatron has gone too far by murdering Ultra Magnus.  We all know Jetfire ends up as an Autobot, and we can see how this should work out, although it's not going to be a smooth ride.

Wheeljack and Bumblebee partner up to try and get the Alpha Trion protocols out of Bumblebee's brain, in an attempt to write him out of the storyline.  Nobody was in a rush to get them out of Ultra Magnus's head, so I like this idea (although I know it won't work).  The Allspark, according to the map, is in the Sea of Rust (so why didn't Ultra Magnus point this out?  Just saying).  Elita-1 continues to needle Optimus Prime at every opportunity, "We're as low on hope as we are on energon."  Honestly, she's just becoming too much of an irritation to be helpful.  They might be able to traverse the Sea of Rust with Jetfire's help - what a coincidence that he's just decided to join the Autobots in their fight.  Elita 1 says of course that this is tactically unwise, but then says they need to carry on anyway.  She really isn't bringing much to the party, except some unwanted negativity.

Elita-1, Chief Autobot Naysayer

We left Impactor, Ratchet and their uneasy group repairing the Space Bridge.  The repairs are a success, and Mirage generates a large-scale hologram to hide it.  

Wheeljack, meanwhile, needs raw energon to get The Ark up and flying - so Bumblebee again takes the lead.

It's not all wins though, as Megatron and his cronies are able to infiltrate Ultra Magnus's brain and start destroying the Autobot network.  I am becoming increasingly unimpressed with Ultra Magnus's decision to try to negotiate with the Decepticons, way back in Episode 2.  He was storing the Alpha Trion protocols; he's got access to this Autobot network; he knows Megatron can't be trusted... his decision was naive at best, and utterly misguided.  He's done more damage to the Autobot cause than Elita 1, and that's saying something.

On the Autobot side, the plots are getting complicated.  There's the Space Bridge, which has been reactivated because... it's there.  There's the Ark, which is the Autobot's main base, which Optimus wants to use to possibly flee the planet, although I'm not sure.  Whatever ity is, it all has to happen at the same time, because Optimus says so.  I really  miss the decisive, confident Optimus Prime of the 1980s cartoon; this version is a wet lettuce by comparison.

On the Decepticon side, the aim is simple:  defeat the Autobots through propaganda; destroying their assets, and direct physical confrontation whenever politically possible.

Who's going to win?

The Autobots go off with two aims:  get the raw energon from the Mercenary Soundblaster, and retrieve the Allspark from its safe location in the Sea of Rust.  This involves driving through lightning storms, dust storms and a multitude of other natural obstacles (if this was Earth; I don't recall Cybertron ever being dusty); and eventually reaching the site of the Allspark.  Optimus has, "A feeling, as if the Matrix itself sends a warning," and the next thing you know, they're engaging - sigh - in hand-to-hand combat with robot zombies.  We had similar zombies in the early episodes of Transformers Prime, and they are just as out-of-place here as they were there.  What's the point?  Can't we have some imaginative jeopardy between our heroes and the Allspark?  No, it's recycled robot zombies.   Will the heroes survive?

Here come the robot zombies... again...

The plan to obtain raw energon from Soundblaster also seems to be going off the rails: Soundblaster's guards scan Bumblebee, Arcee and Cog for weapons.  Cog transforms into a huge arsenal of weapons... but no, he's clean.  But wait, Soundblaster knew that all along... this isn't looking good for our heroes.

All-in-all:  a convoluted plot starts to take shape.  The Autobots want the Space Bridge, and the Ark (and the energon to power it), and the Allspark, in order to get the Allspark off Cybertron, and presumably flee themselves (in a chase to retrieve it from deep space).  It seems unnecessarily complicated, but it is what it is.  The Decepticons, on the other hand, are out to destroy the Autobots no matter the cost, and to seize the Allspark for themselves, in order to turn all the remaining Autobots into Decepticons.

It's not clear how all this will turn out in the end, but it's clear that the temporary jeopardy of Bumblee and the Energon Gang, and Optimus and the Allspark Gang is entirely temporary, and should be resolved very quickly in the next - and final - episode!

A/B testing without a 50-50 split

Whenever people ask me what I do for a living, I [try not to] launch off into a little speech about how I improve website design and experience by running tests, where we split traffic 50-50 between test and control, and mathematically determine which is better.  Over the years, it's been refined and dare I say optimized, but that's the general theme, because that's the easiest way of describing what I do.  Simple.

There is nothing in the rules, however, that says you have to split traffic 50-50.  We typically say 50-50 split because it's a random chance of being split into one of two groups - like tossing a coin, but that's just tradition (he says, tearing up the imaginary rule book).

Why might you want to test on a different split setting?

1.  Maybe your test recipe is so completely 'out-there' and different from control that you're worried that it'll affect your site's KPIs, and you want to test more cautiously.  So, why not do a 90-10?  You only risk 10% of your total traffic, and providing that 10% is large enough to produce a decent sample size, which risk a further 40%?  And if it starts winning, then maybe you increase to an 80-20 split, and move towards 50-50 eventually?

2.  Maybe your test recipe is based on a previous winner, and you want to get more of your traffic into a recipe that should be a winner as quickly as possible (while also checking that it is still a winner).  So you have the opportunity to test on a 10-90 split, with most of your traffic on the test experience and 10% held back as a control group to confirm your previous winner.

3.  Maybe you need test data quickly - you are confident you can use historic data for the control group, but you need to get data on the test page/site/experience, and for that, you'll need to funnel more traffic into the test group.  You can use a combination of historic data and control group data to measure the current state performance, and then get data on how customers interact with the new page (especially if you're measuring clicks on a new widget on the page, and how customers like or dislike it).

Things to watch out for

If you decide to run an A/B test on uneven splits, then beware:

- You need to emphasise conversion rates, and calculate your KPIs as "per visitor" or "per impression".  I'm sure you do this already with your KPIs, but absolute numbers of orders or clicks, or revenue values will not be suitable here.  If you have twice as much traffic in B compared to A (a 66-33 split), then you should expect twice as many success events from an identical success rate; you'll need to divide by visit, visitor or page view (depending on your metric, and your choice).

- You can't do multivariate analysis on uneven splits - as I mentioned in my articles on MVT analysis, you need equal-ish numbers of visits in order to combine the data from the different recipes.

The Numbers of a UK Vaccination Program

Today's news of the regulator's approval of a COVID-19 vaccine is extremely good news, and the light at the end of the tunnel is drawing closer on a daily basis.  Thoughts are now moving from "If..." to "When..." and "How..." - and this is an important question:  how will we all get vaccinated?  I'm not going to answer the political questions, I'm looking at this entirely from a logistical perspective.

*  There are, according to UK Census data from 2019, just over 66 million people in the UK.  If we assume that children won't be vaccinated, that brings the number down to around 55 million (source: York University)

*  Each of these 55 million people will require vaccination, and the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine (and the Oxford-Astra Zeneca vaccine also) require two injections to be given.  That's 110 million doses.

*  The UK government has promised to vaccinate everybody who wants to be vaccinated, and has already contracted to purchase 40 million doses of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine (enough for 20 million people).  It also has contracts out with other potential providers: totalling over 357 million vaccines doses through agreements with several separate vaccine developers at various stages of trials, here's the full breakdown, sorted from largest to smallest quantity: (source, UK gov website)

100 million doses of University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – pending MHRA approval
60 million doses of Novavax vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials
60 million doses of Valneva vaccine – pre-clinical trials
60 million doses of GSK/Sanofi Pasteur vaccine – phase 1 clinical trials
40 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine – approved by MHRA
30 million doses of Janssen vaccine – phase 2 clinical trials
7 million doses of Moderna vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials

So, assuming the Oxford vaccine is approved, the UK government will already have secured sufficient vaccine for the UK population who will need it.  The others could be considered a safety net.

*  How will it be distributed?
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) have set out their independent advice on how the population should be prioritised, in an article they published today.  They recommend starting with the elderly in care homes, and with health and social care workers. , moving on to those who have been shielding due to being Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, and then in phases from older people to younger, down to teenagers last.  Some groups are recommended to be excluded from the vaccination program, including pregnant women (due to lack of data) and children under 16, who are asymptomatic (i.e. they don't become very ill with COVID).  

The logistics:  distribution will have to be decentralised (i.e. regional, and probably by district - possibly on the scale of a Parliamentary constituency) because the vaccine has special storage requirements (-80C).  There have already been discussions of sports halls, football stadia and leisure centres being used - that's the scale of the operation that's being planned.  It will be fascinating to see how it all rolls out, and something I'm looking forward to (around Easter, probably).

Combinations and Permutations

PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS

After mentioning permutations and combinations in a previous blog post on targeting, I thought it was time to provide a more mathematical treatment of them.  Everybody talks about them as a pair (in the same way as people tend to say 'look and feel', or 'design and technology').  

Let's start with an example:  three banners are to be shown on a website homepage. If we simplify and call the different pictures A, B and C, then one order in which they can be hung is A, B, C and another is A, C, B.

Each of these arrangements is called a permutation of the three pictures (and there are further possible permutations), i.e, a permutation is an ordered arrangement of a number of items.

Suppose, however, that seven banners are available for presenting on the website, and only three of them can be displayed. This time a choice has first to be made. If we call the seven banners A, B, C, D, E, F and G, one possible choice of the three pictures for display is A, B, and C - ignoring the sequence of the banners. Regardless of the order in which they are then hung this group of three is just one choice and is called a combination.

A, B, C
A, C, B
B, A, C
B, C, A
C, A, B
C, B, A

are six different permutations; but only one combination thus:

i.e. a combination is an unordered selection of a number of items from a given set.

In this post,  I will discuss methods for finding the total number of ways of arranging items (permutations) or choosing groups of items (combinations) from a given set. But before we do so it is critical that we're able to distinguish between permutations and combinations.  They are not the same, and the terms shouldn't be used interchangeably.

For example:  a news website has ten news articles on its site, but the home page layout means that only five can be shown, in a vertical column. While they cannot display all ten of the articles, they must choose a group of five. The order in which the site selects the five articles is irrelevant (in this case); the set of five is only one combination. Once they have made the choice, they are then able to place the five articles in various different orders on the display stand. Now the site team are arranging them and each arrangement is a permutation, i.e a particular set of five articles is one combination, but that one combination can be arranged to give several different permutations.

1.  The King's Health is Failing
2.  Peace Treaty Signed!
3.  Life found on Mars!
4. Bungled Theft on the Railway
5. Jack the Ripper
6. Reports of My Death Greatly Exaggerated
7. Lottery Winner Buys Football Team
8.  New 007 is a Woman
9. Crop Circles - The Answer
10. Price of Eggs falls 10%

In each of these examples, decide if the question is asking for a number of permutations, or a number of combinations.

How many arrangements of the letters A, B, C are there?
Arrangements means the sequence is important, so this means permutations.

A team of six members is chosen from a group of eight. How many different

teams can be selected?
The sequence is not important, so this means combinations.

A person can take eight records to a desert island, chosen from his own

selection of one hundred records. How many different sets of records could he choose?
Different sets, again the sequence is not critical, so these are combinations.

The first, second and third prizes for a raffle are awarded by drawing tickets

from a box of five hundred. In how many ways can the prizes be won?
Here, there's a difference between the order (or sequence, or arrangement) of the three prizes, so we're looking at permutations.

Combinations:  the sequence is not important.
Permutations:  the sequence is important.

Review: Transformers: War For Cybertron: Siege: Episode 4

 CONTAINS SPOILERS

The previous episode concluded with Megatron's great political speech, and to be fair, he seems to hold all the cards.  After Ultra Magnus's misguided and deluded attempt at peaceful negotiations, he's become Megatron's prisoner and things are looking bleak.

Episode 4 starts with a similar bleak tone: pouring rain and a thunderstorm, as a shackled Magnus leads Megatron to the location of  Autobot Command, Tarn Hauser Gate.  Tarn Hauser was a tragic battleground from the original War.  Megatron continues to spew his own political diatribe about unifying Cybertron (i.e. bringing them all under his command and control).

However, Magnus has not betrayed his fellow Autobots.  Tarn Hauser Gate contains a portal where the wisdom of Alpha Trion (known as the Alpha Trion Protocols) can be transferred to another Autobot upon the death of their current host (Magnus).  Megatron shoots Ultra Magnus in the chest, killing Magnus, and thereby triggering the Alpha Trion Protocol transferral process.

And the mysterious and ancient combined wisdom of generations of Autobots selects Bumblebee.  Well, of course it does - why choose Optimus Prime, who clearly needs help, when you can instead select a non-Autobot who is massively over-used in the entirety of Transformers lore (apart from the movie Bumblebee, where he actually make sense as the main character).  Bumblebee - annoying character with a chip on his shoulder the size of Iacon - has now become indispensable to the Autobots, which is going to make him even more annoying.  We can now add precocious to Bumblebee's list of annoying characteristics (selfish, cute, screen-time hog... the list goes on).  Bumblebee goes on a Protocol-induced vision quest to meet Holographic Alpha Trion who tells Bumblebee that he can be trusted with this great wisdom.  This mellows Bumblebee slightly, but I'm not impressed with this decision at all.

Optimus senses the death of Ultra Magnus through the Matrix (or something similar).  Megatron, on the other hand, has no idea what he's just witnessed.  Jetfire is continuing to play the part of the loyal Decepticon, which would work out better if he hadn't killed Skywarp and been found out.  Starscream appears by Megatron's side, exposes Jetfire's treachery and then pursues him across Cybertron's skies.  Jetfire against the Seekers isn't going to end well for the treacherous Decepticon.

Bumblebee gets hit with the full force of the Alpha Trion Protocols, and as he recovers, he starts to see parts of The Matrix (no, not the Autobot Matrix - think Keanu Reaves) everywhere.

Optimus is continuing his mission to get the Spacebridge up and running, and sends Ratchet, Mirage and Impactor (Decepticon who will one day go on to lead the Wreckers, just don't tell him that yet) as part of a team to go and repair it, so that he can use it to take the Allspark off Cybertron.  Elita-1 continues to question and criticise, while Optimus prepares to sieze the Allspark.  His plan is coherent and makes sense, on paper at least.  Taking two separate trips across occupied Cybertron is going to be dangerous.

First, though, Optimus goes to attempt to recruit the Guardians, who live in a wide expanse of cloudy, foggy Cybertonian plains.  He wrongly assumes that one of them was given the Alpha Trion Protocols, and they remain mysterious in their cloudy atmosphere.  Could Omega Supreme be one of the Guardians?  Will they refuse to interfere in the affairs of the Autobots and Decepticons?  To paraphrase Optimus:  What use are they if they don't interfere?

The apparent demise of Jetfire leaves a vacancy for Head of the Seekers, and Megatron wishes to reward Starscream for exposing Jetfire and then eliminating him.  (Is Jetfire really dead?  Was Skywarp?).  So, Starscream gets promoted to Commander of the Seekers - much to the bemusement of Soundwave ("most inferior") and Shockwave.  I laughed out loud at Shockwave and Soundwave's reactions - and considering that Soundwave doesn't have a mouth, and Shockwave has only an eye, the animators have done a fantastic job in injecting expression into both of them.

Bumblebee knows where the Allspark is, but before the Autobots can start their journey, they have to help Jetfire complete his path from Decepticon to Autobot, and that's where we leave this episode.

Jetfire has defected from the Decepticons (we all knew this was going to happen).
Impactor, Mirage and team are fixing the Spacebridge.
Optimus and Bumblebee are preparing to retrieve the Allspark.
Megatron is playing catch-up: having held all the cards at the start, Megatron has now lost Ultra Magnus, doesn't understand the Alpha Trion Protocols and doesn't have the Allspark.

So, the pieces are all in play, and there's no obvious conclusion (except we have to assume the Autobots will succeed, because that's the way history's written).  There are some fascinating twists here - some expected, some unexpected, and it'll be interesting to see how the writers straighten everything out.

Reckless Chess: Part 3 - Online Game

 I've blogged before about the fun I have playing reckless Chess, and earlier this week I wrapped up an online correspondence game which featured a sacrifice and a breakthrough on the kingside.  In this game, I remembered to wait until my opponent had castled before I went all-in.

I was Black, playing against Gaunah, and it was a Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defence.

1. e4 e5
2. Bc4 Nf6
3. d3 Be7
4. Nf3 d6
5. O-O Bg4
6. h3 Bh5
7. Nc3 Nc6
8. Be3 Qd7

 

Preparing to castle queenside, and moving my queen onto the h3 diagonal, which will be ideal if I can induce my opponent into playing g4.

9. Qd2 g5 



A temporary sacrifice.  I am confident I can get my king to safety in time, but don't need to immediately.  Instead, I want to open lines against White's king and target the g- and h- pawns.  Most boring computer engines tell me I should play Na5, but I'm playing on the kingside, not putting pieces on the opposite edge of the board.

10. Nxg5 Rg8 
11. g4

This was a real surprise, and a definite bonus for me.  Having moved my rook onto the g-file, I did not expect my opponent to start pushing his kingside pawns and creating opportunities and space - and certainly not so soon.  My opponent had realised he couldn't retreat his knight, in the face of Qxh3 or Bxf3.

11.  ... Nxg4
12. hxg4 

At this point, Stockfish declares that checkmate by Black is unavoidable.  

12  ... Qxg4+
13. Kh2 Qh4+
14. Nh3 Bg4
15. Ne2

Covering g1 and g3, but there are multiple paths open now, all of them heading the same way.

15. ...  Qxh3+
16. Kg1 Bf3+
17. Ng3 Qg2# 0-1

The final position.

Review: Transformers War For Cybertron: Siege: Episode 3

CONTAINS SPOILERS 

"It is my unfortunate duty to inform you that the Autobots, led by Optimus Prime, have callously murdered one of our finest soldiers, the patriot Impactor." - Megatron, opening episode 3.

"Amazing. Every word of what you just said was wrong." - Luke Skywalker. 

While Megatron spins the events of Episode 2 to his own ends, the very-much-alive-but-injured Impactor is found by none other than Ratchet.  Except this is War For Cybertron, not G1, and Ratchet is not an optimistic medic, he's a cynical engineer-turned-healer who regrets designing weapons to end the war more quickly and now fixes and mens warriors from both sides (or neither) to atone for his actions.

So, naturally Ratchet takes Impactor to his makeshift field hospital. The Decepticons don't take care of their wounded, and the Autobots don't have the Energon.

There is the usual level of uncertainty, debate and hesitation at Autobot Command.  What if we find the Allspark? What if we take it off Cybertron?  

This contrasts sharply with discussions at Decepticon HQ. Starscream is in full flow, undermining Megatron's plan to use the Allspark to reformat the Autobots into Decepticons. These new 'Cons would not be "true, pure Decepticons" but would "dilute" their warrior heritage.  It appears Starscream is a Dalek or a war criminal who advocates ethnic cleansing - genocide - instead.  

Jetfire calls out Starscream's insubordination, and Megatron (doing his dramatic 'overhearing while entering thing) states it plainly: "Anyone who has a problem with my vision for Cybertron will not have a place in it."  There are no ifs and buts here, and if the Autobots don't get their collective alt modes in gear, they are going to get completely wiped out, and soon.

Elita, Optimus's advisor (or critic) directly challenges his what ifs, which are replaced by a crazy scheme with the episode 1 space bridge.  Prowl: "This is madness." Elita: "It's worse - desperation."

The Decepticons' interrogation of Ultra Magnus is not working, so Megatron gives Shockwave free rein to get results.  There are no compromises here; Megatron's ends justify any means necessary.

Mirage and the Autobots, meanwhile, prove Starscream's point that reformatted Autobots wouldn't be true Decepticons: Mirage can't hold a Decepticon holographic disguise for more than five seconds at a time.  Having said that: Mirage producing disguises and holograms!! Yes!! Somebody read his tech specs! He barely manages to hold his disguise together for long enough to exchange greetings with Skytread and Spinister, and the rest of the Autobot patrol has to wade in. Optimus remains a shadow of his later self, and can barely hold his own against Skytread.  He really needs to hit the gym or something.  The Autobots manage to chase the outnumbered Decepticons off, so that they can meet Ratchet at his field hospital. Wheeljack needs Ratchet to repair the space bridge so that Optimus can send the Allspark off-planet.

Ratchet's hospital is like all military hospitals: filled with walking wounded, under-resourced and failing.  Pretty much everything Optimus says in this scene ("This is admirable, Ratchet," and so on) just sounds patronising and pathetic. Optimus is weak. He's indecisive; useless in combat (except to help is troops retreat); lacking any kind of strategy... I really hope he gets the Creation Matrix/of Leadership soon, otherwise he might just as well pack his bags and give up.

The Bots present their plan to Ratchet. His reply: "What, just so you can take this war to another planet?"  Like Earth?

There's a touch of history between the elitist,  upper-class Mirage and the born-to-slave Impactor (and Megatron).  So they did read Mirage's tech specs and his biography!  

The interrogation of Magnus continues with red electricity instead of white, and with a staged escape by Magnus.  You don't really think the Decepticons let him 'escape' by accident?  Megatron knows Magnus has too much honour to shoot Megatron in the back - he said the same of Optimus in episode 1.  As he says to Magnus: always take the shot.  The Autobots really are going to get slaughtered if they don't start pulling the trigger more often.  I know Megatron = bad and Autobots = heroic, but I'm struggling to support this current batch of heroes and their lack of decisive action.

Ratchet agrees to help the Bots fix the Spacebridge, but he's not doing it for the Autobots, and I don't blame him. Impactor (Decepticon, complete with all-in-one homing device and comm unit) demands to accompany them, and despite Autobot reservations is allowed to join the trip.  He's supposed to become the leader of the Wreckers, but he's not off to a good start giving away the location of Autobot command. Maybe it was accidental, but I'm not buying it.

In a tragic coincidence, Magnus concedes to Shockwave's torture at the same time as Jetfire and Skywarp pick up Impactor's signal.  This forces Jetfire's hand, as he will not slaughter the Autobots in their base, while Skywarp will not hesitate. Jetfire shoots Skywarp in the back (where Magnus would not) and allows Skywarp to flee.

Megatron closes the episode as he started it, the Autobots "defiling Cybertron's holiest relic" and "destroying the Allspark". He seems unstoppable, especially as he concludes with his own chilling interpretation of the Autobot maxim: "till all are one".

Review: Transformers: War For Cybertron: Siege: Episode 2

CONTAINS SPOILERS

Episode 2 of Transformers: Siege picks up all the threads of Episode 1 and moves them forwards significantly.  This story does not lack pace:  Ultra Magnus visits the Decepticon base, and as military commander of the Autobots, surrenders to Megatron.  Misguided?  Yes.  Foolish?  Completely.  But it's also consistent with his character, as we saw in Episode 1.  Ultra Magnus will do anything to preserve the Autobots, even if it means surrendering.  Optimus, on the other hand, will never surrender to Megatron's tyranny, even if it means the extinction of the Autobots.   It's an interesting development to the discussion Prime and Magnus had in Episode 1.

Megatron insists that Ultra Magnus should convince Optimus to end the war; Ultra Magnus disagrees, and since Ultra Magnus will not order the Autobots to stand down, Megatron puts him in a prison cell.  This is not going to end well (even if we know that Magnus will survive).

This episode suffers from what I call the "prequel problem".  If Optimus, Bumblebee and Another Autobot go off on a suicide mission against the Decepticons, guess who isn't coming back?  Since we know how things work out in the end, we know what's going to happen to get there.  Optimus and Bumblebee must survive, because they do survive.  But will Another Autobot survive this dangerous mission?  It's not looking good.

Shockwave and his team want to find the Allspark, which, in this incarnation of Transformers, is dodecahedral.  Shockwave believes he can reprogram and then activate it so that it will reformat all Autobots into Decepticons.  Megatron carefully considers this; Jetfire describes it as a victory without honour.  The prequel problem strikes again, if you recall what happens to Jetfire in the future.

Ultra Magnus transmits news of Megatron's plan to Optimus, and Optimus gathers 'everyone'.  It's a tragic reflection on the current situation that 'everyone' consists of little more than Chromia, Elita 1, Cog, Hound, Sideswipe and Wheeljack.  Soundwave (with his G1 voice firmly in place) intercepts Magnus's message and Megatron lays a trap for the Autobots.  This all makes sense, and things go from bad to worse for Magnus.  Just how is he going to get out of this one?  We know he will do - courtesty of the prequel problem - but things are looking bleak.  

It's fantastic to see so many of the characters in this episode using their specific abilities - Soundwave intercepting and then fabricating comms messages; Mirage using his holographic powers - as well as them exhibiting unique personalities.  Jetfire is the honourable warrior; Starscream is ambitious and conniving; Elita 1 is skeptical; Prime is heroic and optimistic.  There are no wasted scenes throughout the episode - the story is tight, and every character and every line is delivered with a purpose (whether immediate or long-term).

The Autobots fall straight into Megatron's trap:  Hound, Sideswipe, Six-Gun, Prime, Chromia and Cog take on the Decepticon ambush (guess who isn't coming back?).  Impactor, Skytread, Barricade and Spinister lead small groups of Decepticons from their vantage points.  I thoroughly enjoyed seeing so many Transformers from the G1 cartoon and previous comic series on the small screen - this series isn't afraid to introduce and showcase a wide range of characters (unlike Transformers Prime, for example, which focused tightly on a smaller cast).

The ambush fight scene features some great action sequences.  Optimus runs into the battle - armed, at last - and defeats Impactor (who is also suffering from the prequel problem).  There's a great sense of the chaos that follows as the Autobot squad struggle to retreat when it all kicks off.  Cog gets the force of the blast of the Decepticon ambush, and is very badly injured; the Autobots are able to make a getaway, with Prime transforming to vehicle mode and carrying Cog away.

The recriminations begin at Autobot base; Elita 1 doesn't quite say, "I told you so," but it's in every word she says to Prime.  They didn't capture the energon, they suffered casualties, and all because Optimus trusted the message that had apparently come from Magnus.

The situation is worse at Decepticon HQ.  Megatron has lost Impactor, and also lost the energon he put up as bait for the Autobots.  Assuming that Optimus seized the energon, Megatron goes to Ultra Magnus and demands the location of the Autobot base.  The situation has gone from bad to worse for the naive Autobot prisoner; he's going to suffer for his idealism.

So where did the energon go?  The opportunistic Bumblebee stole it during the chaos of the battle between the Autobots and Decepticons.

This was an excellent episode, possibly even better than the first.  The plot moves along at a phenomenal rate; the individual characters start to shine - this isn't "Optimus and the carbon-copy Autobot heroes versus Megatron and his 2-D troops" - and the fight scenes are extremely well directed and orchestrated.  It does suffer in from places from knowing what happens to some of the characters (although this does raise the question - how do they get to their destinations from these starting points?) but this is minor compared to the scale of the storyline.  I am already looking forward to the next episode (I just need to find time to watch it!);

Tarn Hauser-Gate; Iacon (where Megatron sets the trap)

Review: Transformers: War For Cyberton: Siege: Episode 1

CONTAINS SPOILERS

I have been a Transformers fan since my first comic in 1984 (Issue 4).  I own all the DVDs of the G1 cartoon series, and all the movies (including the original, which I once owned on VHS).  I have been an on-and-off fan, as I grew too mature for 'toys', then rediscovered them, then got too busy, and then realised that transforming robots are great for leisure time.

I have therefore been waiting for the new Netflix series War For Cybertron Trilogy for months (since it was first announced).

It opens with a series of Decepticon flyers ("Seekers") strafing their way around Cybertron, while on the ground below them, Bumblebee and Wheeljack are sneaking around trying to find energon.  I like this - right from the outset, this mirrors the start of the original series .  However, this is not the spritely and perky Bumblebee (thank goodness) from G1, this is a cynical mercenary.  This initial mission uncovers a cache of energon and a space bridge (think of the Transformers Prime version, not the G1 comic version), and, unfortunately, a group of Decepticons led by Jetfire and Starscream (who sounds so much like the G1 character it's uncanny). 

The characterisation is excellent:  Starscream is manipulative; Megatron is full of plans; Jetfire is loyal; Wheeljack is principled. And Optimus?  Heroic, as you would expect, but not a warrior.

And the visuals?  Outstanding.  These bots are not shiny and new, not even the Decepticons are fresh and clean; they're battle-scarred.  The bots have the perfect blend of tough metal and flexing steel to enable them to move without looking like disjointed steel boxes. 

Elita One:  "What exactly are you?" 

Bumblebee:  "What?  Don't you mean 'who'?"

Wheeljack: "He's a pain in the ass, that's who he is."

Jumping for joy at this clear statement of Bumblebee's annoying history.

The touches of history are fantastic - there are references to the original series (including Alpha Trion) throughout, and especially half-way through when we meet the Ark.  I wasn't expecting to see this ship so early in the series - after all, the flight on the Ark marks the end of the war for Cybertron as we move into the G1 era.  

This episode makes a great start:  the focus is on a limited number of characters, but only until we reach the interior of the Ark, at which point the cast list explodes into a crowd of G1 favourites:  I spotted Hound, Mirage, Sunstreaker (and later Sideswipe); Ultra Magnus and Red Alert are name-checked.  In a development which is consistent with the G1 comic, the Autobots are low on energon, and can't function properly without it.  

The Ark is the gathering point for the energy-depleted Autobots, as they face a war that they aren't winning.  They aren't gathering enough energon, and they are facing extinction at the hands of the Decepticons.  This is truly a no-win situation, and Magnus and Prime discuss this at length while the returning Autobots are directed to Red Alert for medical attention.  Random question:  where's Ratchet?

Optimus asks Bumblebee to join the ranks of the Autobots, but cynical Bumblebee declines the offer.  It seems that all the Autobots have is their principles, and Optimus is going to hold on to them, no matter the cost.  Things look grim for the Autobots, and this is an excellent first episode, setting the scene and bringing a good-sized cast into play.

Megatron, on the other hand, is winning.  He's manipulating events, and presenting his version of them to the Decepticons:  there can be no peace with the Autobots, so the Decepticons must arm themselves to end the conflict.  As Megatron explains, in the final scene: "We must forge weapons from his weaknesses: honour, brotherhood, love.  That's how we'll defeat Prime and win this war."

Targeted Banners: A study in permutations

"How are our banners performing?"

It's a question I'm being asked increasingly frequently, as we step up our on-site marketing. And banners are banners: they've been around for years; customers are accustomed to them (and possibly tired of them) and the challenge is to make them fresh, useful, relevant and just plain interesting. However, banners are easy, straightforward and simple to execute, measure and analyse.  You didn't think I was going to recommend adding banners without commenting on KPIs for them?

"Which banners are doing the best?"

So the challenge becomes: how do we make sure we have the right banner for the right customers?  How do we drive clicks and - more importantly - increase revenue?

Some form of targeting helps, and this could be keyword, or geo targeting, or behavioural targeting.  But why not try promoting multiple products instead of just one (or just one family of products)?  If you can split a banner slot into two, you can promote twice as many products in the same space.  And, if you can use some form of targeting, then the options for what to show increase significantly. 

Let's take an online toy retailer as an example.  What would you promote on your home page if you were an online toy shop?

There are several categories you might want to feature:

Construction toys

Dolls

Dinosaurs 

Cars

Robots

Board games 

Outdoor toys 

However, your website design only allows space (or 'real estate') for three.  And besides, you've found that having more than three diluted the effectiveness of them - your visitors get "banner blindness".  So which three do you show?  

You could determine which three to show based on various factors:

What does the customer search for?  If they search for "Lego" or "Jurassic Park", then they'll probably appreciate the banners for construction toys and dinosaurs.  Setting up some form of tracking on search usage across the site, and then matching this to the banner categories will enable you to show content that's more likely to be appealing to your visitors.

Better still, what was the inbound keyword that your user searched for?  I know Google doesn't share natural search terms (for some strange reason, the tracking only applies to Google paid search terms), but if you can access the search term that the visitor used when she came to your site, then you can start targeting her from the moment she arrives on your site, and that's a key advantage.

Alternatively, which marketing campaign did she click when she came to your site?  Was it an email that advertised your range of sports toys?

Or which pages has this visitor been viewing? If they're browsing your pages on Barbie, Sindy and similar, then this gives you a better indication of her purchase intent.

What has this customer purchased before? This will take longer for your targeting to initialise as you'll have to wait for your customer's first purchase, and once it's running it will be less dynamic than the other methods, but will be more specific as you'll know that this user has made a purchase in this category before.  The segment will be smaller, but have a higher likelihood to purchase.  Thinking outside the toy store example to other industries, maybe you could target your banners based on items added to basket (cart); videos viewed on site (what were they promoting); PDF downloads and other success events on your site.

So, you can see, there are various options for how you target, and you can then determine how effective each method is, through testing.  The model doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be testable, and you can be confident that your testing model will go some way towards making your site more relevant (and better converting) for your visitors.  After all, there are so many variations, surely there's a good chance that you'll find a better set of banners than the one you show to all your generic customers.

So, how many permutations are there?

In our example, there are three slots available on the site, and we have seven different banners we can show.  Here are some example images, taken from various online sites.  In practice, these would be more uniform in design and messaging.

We have three slots in total:

The first slot could be filled by one of seven images.

The second slot can be filled by one of the remaining six images.

The third slot can be filled by one of the five images that we haven't used yet.

7 * 6 * 5 = 210 permutations (we use permutations here, because we can't use the same banner in two slots - that would give us combinations, and would be an even larger number).

If we decided we wanted to use only six of the banners - for example if we decide that board games aren't relevant any more - then the calculation would be:

6 (for the first slot) * 5 (for the second slot) * 4 (for the third slot) = 120

Conversely, if we introduced soft toys as an extra variation, so that we had a bank of eight banners altogether, then we'd have:

8 * 7 * 6 = 336

This is an example of "permutations without repetition" - the sequence of the banners is important, and we only show each banner once (we don't repeat them).  I recommend this site for more on the calculations of the number of permutations.  The short answer is that the more slots you have, and more banners you have, the more permutations there are (significantly increasing with scale), and the greater the likelihood of showing the best banners to your users.

So, target your banners - you'll be able to dynamically target your content to your users, and start to reduce the guesswork from your marketing.  Even the smallest increases in possible locations or banners will rapidly improve your chances of presenting the ideal banner (if not the ideal permutation) to your users.

Undo or Save Changes?

The UK is now heading towards "life after lockdown", as we are seeing daily or weekly changes to the lockdown rules and things are heading back towards 'normal'.  Schools are partially re-opening; you can get Drive Thru McDonald's (if you're prepared to queue); zoos and parks will be re-opening soon, and the two-metre rule could be relaxed to just one metre.

So, as the worst of the pandemic is over (and I know this is debatable), what will you do in the post-lockdown world?  Undo, or save changes?

Would you prefer to go back to things the way they were?  Exactly as they were?  Back to the office commute; the school run; the weekend dash to the supermarket?  The cinema, the theatre, football matches?  Don't misunderstand me, a lot of 'normal' was good, while other aspects have benefited from the change.  Do we all need to pile into our cars and drive to an office several miles away, or can we work from home?  Have Zoom, Skype and Teams been able to substitute for face-to-face meetings (with colleagues, customers, friends and family)?

Would you like to preserve some of the changes?  Is working from home suiting you?  Do you miss the school run?  Yes - me, I do.  Have you had to support local businesses more, because queuing outside the supermarket and round the car park hasn't appealed to you?

I'm not saying lockdown has been all good.  It has, quite honestly, been a struggle.  Human beings aren't designed and built to be isolated - "it is not good for a man to be alone" - and I am eager to see my friends and family face-to-face, with a hug and a handshake.  The underlying tension of, "Will I catch it?  Will I transmit it?  Will I be a serious case?" has certainly helped me focus on staying in lockdown, but as lockdown is easing I will be delighted to see people I've missed.

What have I learned?  On one occasion in about week 4 or 5 of lockdown, I was encouraging my children, saying, "We'll find things to do, we'll have lots of activities, we can do this, or that...." and so on, and one of them replied, "Dad, you're really cheerful, aren't you?" Maybe I'm more optimistic than I thought I was (and I know I can usually find the bright side).  I'm also less of an introvert than I believed.  

So: things I will be delighted to undo:

- not seeing friends and family (I will be doing this more, offline and online)

- not going to church. I have really missed meeting my church family

- not going charity-shopping. It's one of my favourite going out activities

- not shaking hands. If you're reading this, I owe you at least a handshake

- depending on social media for contact

Things I will be saving:

- spending more time looking after my neighbours 

- spending more money on local businesses instead of supermarkets

- a more patient approach to online shopping (yes, Amazon is fast, but I am preferring to wait and buy from other sites, or even local stores who've moved online).

So: undo, or save changes?

 

Reckless Chess, Part 2

My online Blitz Chess games seem to be developing a pattern, and it's a trend which is suiting me very nicely.

1. e4   e5
2. Nf3  Nc6
3. Bc4  d6
4.  0-0  Bg4
5. Re1 Nf6
6. h3  Bh5
7. g4  Nxg4

This is now the second time I've been able to pile in with this king-side sacrifice, and it's going fairly well.  Clearly it's wrong-footing my opponents, but it removes two of the three pawns in front of his king, and gives me a some entertaining games playing with my queen in front of his king:

8. hxg4 Bxg4 
9. Re3 Nd4 



Piling on the pressure, and developing my pieces while White's pieces stay in their starting positions.

10. c3 Nxf3+ 
11. Rxf3 Bxf3 
12. Bxf7+ Kxf7   

13. Qxf3+  Ke8 

Maybe my opponent thought a counter-sacrifice would work, but all he's done here is give me more material - I'm now ahead by the exchange and a pawn - and he's kindly opened the f-file.

14. d4 Qh4  - direct Chess at its most fun.
15. Kf1 Be7 
16. dxe5 Rf8 
17. Qe2 

Black (me) to play, played dxe5 and missed Qh1#

17.   ....   dxe5 (missing Qh1#)
18. Qb5+ c6 
0-1

The threats piling up around the white king include Qxf1# and if Qe1 then Qh1#.  There's also cxQ if White doesn't move his Queen.

As I said, I am enjoying the sacrifice on the g4 square, and so far it's reaping its benefit against people trying to play some form of Fried Liver Attack, with Nf3 and Bc4.

More to follow, I'm sure!