In my last post I looked at 'Howexciting is the Premier League' and produced the interesting data point
that less than 10% of Premier League games are goal-less. This may be
interesting, and it might even count as insight, but it's not very
actionable. We can't do anything with it, or make any decisions from
it. I suppose the question is, "Is that a lot?" and I'll be
looking at that question in more detail in future.
So,
my next step is to look at how the different teams in the Premier League
compare on some of the key metrics that I discussed - goals per game (total
conceded plus scored), percentage of goalless games and so on.
Number of goals per game (conceded plus scored)
Firstly, I segmented the data per team: how many goals were there per
game for each team in the Premier League. This is time-consuming, but
worthwhile, and a sample of the data is shown below. I have data as far back as the 2004-5 season, but the
width wouldn't fit on this page:
Club
|
Y2010
|
Y2011
|
Y2012
|
Y2013
|
Y2014
|
Y2015
|
Y2016
|
Arsenal
|
2.58
|
3.03
|
3.24
|
2.87
|
2.87
|
2.82
|
2.66
|
Aston Villa
|
2.21
|
2.82
|
2.37
|
3.05
|
2.63
|
2.32
|
2.71
|
Birmingham
|
|
2.50
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blackburn
|
2.79
|
2.76
|
3.32
|
|
|
|
|
Bolton
|
2.61
|
2.84
|
3.24
|
|
|
|
|
Charlton
|
2.47
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chelsea
|
2.32
|
2.68
|
2.92
|
3.00
|
2.58
|
2.76
|
2.95
|
Crystal Palace
|
|
|
|
|
2.13
|
2.58
|
2.37
|
Everton
|
2.32
|
2.53
|
2.37
|
2.50
|
2.63
|
2.58
|
3.00
|
Fulham
|
2.58
|
2.42
|
2.61
|
2.89
|
3.29
|
|
|
Liverpool
|
2.21
|
2.71
|
2.29
|
3.00
|
3.97
|
2.63
|
2.97
|
Man City
|
1.92
|
2.45
|
3.21
|
2.63
|
3.66
|
3.18
|
2.95
|
Man United
|
2.89
|
3.03
|
3.21
|
3.39
|
2.82
|
2.61
|
2.21
|
Middlesbrough
|
2.45
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Newcastle
|
2.24
|
2.97
|
2.82
|
2.97
|
2.68
|
2.71
|
2.87
|
Norwich
|
|
|
3.11
|
2.61
|
2.37
|
|
2.79
|
Portsmouth
|
2.29
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Southampton
|
|
|
|
2.87
|
2.63
|
2.29
|
2.63
|
Tottenham
|
2.92
|
2.66
|
2.82
|
2.95
|
2.79
|
2.92
|
2.74
|
West Brom
|
|
3.34
|
2.55
|
2.89
|
2.68
|
2.34
|
2.16
|
Wigan
|
2.53
|
2.66
|
2.74
|
3.16
|
|
|
|
Season Average
|
2.77
|
2.80
|
2.81
|
2.80
|
2.77
|
2.57
|
2.70
|
Blank columns indicate a season where a team was not in the Premier
League.
Bold figures show where a team achieved over 3 goals per game for the season.
Y2008 indicates the season 2007-2008.
Firstly:
sorting alphabetically makes sense from a listing perspective, but for
comparison the data is best sorted numerically (from highest to lowest).
Secondly: There's a lot of data here, and clearly a visualisation is
needed: I'm going with a line graph. And to avoid spaghetti, I'm
going to highlight some of the key teams - the team with the highest average
number of goals per game; the team with the lowest, and the average.
Thirdly: to identify the overall highest- and lowest-goal teams, I'm just
going to take the totals of the averages for the last nine seasons, and sort
them from the list. Teams that were not in the Premier League for one or
more seasons are included based on their performance while they were in the
Premier League.
Premier League Teams: Average
number of goals per game over the last 12
seasons:
Club
|
Average
|
Arsenal
|
2.842
|
Tottenham
|
2.833
|
Man City
|
2.825
|
Blackburn
|
2.816
|
Man United
|
2.807
|
Liverpool
|
2.781
|
Newcastle
|
2.751
|
Norwich
|
2.717
|
Bolton
|
2.705
|
Overall Average
|
2.702
|
Birmingham
|
2.671
|
Chelsea
|
2.670
|
West Brom
|
2.669
|
Aston Villa
|
2.667
|
Fulham
|
2.613
|
Southampton
|
2.605
|
Wigan
|
2.566
|
Everton
|
2.518
|
Charlton
|
2.474
|
Middlesbrough
|
2.404
|
|
2.368
|
Crystal Palace
|
2.360
|
Key takeaways:
- Arsenal have had the most total goals per game over the last nine seasons
(2.842 goals per game)
-
Everton have the lowest average number of goals per game for teams which have
been present in all 12 seasons (2.518 goals per game).
- Put another way: Arsenal fans have seen 1296 league goals in the last
12 seasons, compared to 1148 for Everton fans (148 fewer).
Theo Walcott, celebrating during
Arsenal's win over
Hull,
Sept 2016
Image
credit
Time
for some graphs!
Firstly, average goals per season, for the last 12 seasons, for Arsenal,
Everton, the league average, Liverpool (who
achieved an average of 3.97 in 2013-14) and Man United (because they're always
worth comparing).
This shows clearly that Arsenal (green line) have consistently exceed the
league average, falling below it only twice in the last 12 seasons.
Everton (blue) have only once exceeded the average, and that was in the most
recent season. Liverpool have exceeded
the average over the last four seasons, but prior to that were consistently
below (and similar to Everton).
Connecting this to 'real life' events:
- Everton moving from David Moyes to Roberton Martinez in August 2013 did not
make any difference to their 'excitement' factor until the 2015-16 season.
- Arsenal, and Arsene Wenger, could not be called 'boring' based on their goals
per game.
- Brendan Rogers had an interesting time at Liverpool,
when they hit the highest goals-per-game for the season for any club in the
last 12 years (3.97). Note that this does not discriminate between goals
scored or conceded.
Secondly, adjusting the data to show the difference between each team and the
overall average (so that the data shows a delta versus the average).
To give you an
indication of Liverpool's remarkable 2013-4
season: their games had more than one goal per game more than the season average. Brendan
Rogers had an eventful time at Liverpool.
Fulham also had an 'exciting' season in 2013-4, achieving 3.29 goals per game
(average was 2.77) - but were subsequently relegated.
In summary:
-
Arsenal have had the highest average goals per game over the last nine seasons
(2.842 goals per game), while Everton
have the lowest, at 2.518 goals per game.
- Arsenal have exceeded the league average goals per game in 10 out of the last
12 seasons, and have the highest average overall.
-
Man United have achieved above-average goals per game in nine of the last 12
seasons; however the 2015-16 season was the least 'exciting' they've recorded
in that period.
Review
Segmenting
the data by team is proving more useful. It's now possible to make
predictions about the 2016-17 season:
-
Arsenal to remain most 'exciting', closely followed by Tottenham and Man City.
-
Everton to remain the least 'exciting', with 1-1, 2-1 and 2-0 results
dominating.
-
Man United are extremely unpredictable, especially as they have a new manager
this season (although nobody could have predicted the dreadful start they've
made to the current season).
The raw data used in this analysis is available from the football data website, among others.