Moon's Orbital Radius Increasing

In an unexpected and unprecented move, the European Space Agency announced this morning that their data shows that the Moon has started to increase its mean orbital radius at a rate considerably higher than previously believed.  It's been known for some time that the distance from the Earth to the Moon is increasing, but the rate of increase is worrying.  In other words, the Moon is moving further away from the Earth faster than we thought, and in a few year's time will leave the Earth's orbit completely.  


This finding comes after a series of measurements of the Earth-Moon distance (carried out using a more accurate process than this one), using a laser beam pointed at a network of mirrors which Neil Armstrong placed on the Moon's surface over 40 years ago, during the Apollo 11 mission.  By measuring how long it takes for a beam of light to travel to the Moon and back, ESA scientists have been able to determine that the distance from the Earth to the moon has, over the last three years, increased by an average of 140 metres per year.  

However, more alarming is the fact that the rate of increase is also going up - the Moon is, on average, moving further away at a faster rate with time.  The increase over the last six months is about 1.4% more than the average increase over the previous six months.
 

Exact forecasts vary, but ESA scientists are all agreed that within 14 years the Moon's orbit will have extended so far that it will leave the Earth's gravitational field completely, and head off into space.  The team of scientists have proposed various reasons for the Moon's recent moves, and the most common suggestions are related to the recent tectonic activity on Earth - the tsunami of 2004, the volcano in Iceland during 2009-10, and possibly the recent earthquakes near New Zealand, an in particular Japan, which has left to a shortening of the length of the Earth's day.  The recent earthquakes have coincided with the moon coming towards a particularly close approach (perigee) and the theory proposes that this has caused the moon to increase its speed while making this close approach, which will lead to it reaching a larger distance at its furthest point 14 days later.


Other scientists have yet to confirm the team's findings, which have sparked considerable controversy in astronomical circles.  Teams in the southern hemisphere have carried out measurements into the exact time for the moon's orbit and have not noticed a significant change in this - either an increase or a decrease, and therefore have concluded that the moon's orbital radius has not changed.  Other teams are preparing to carry out their own measurements using Armstrong's mirrors, and will be sharing their results later next week.