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Monday, 6 September 2021

It's Not Zero!

 I started this blog many years ago.  It pre-dates at least two of my children, and possibly all three - back in the days when I had time to spare, time to write and time to think of interesting topics to write about.  Nowadays, it's a very different story, and I discovered that my last blog post was back in June.  I used to aim for one blog article per month, so that's two full months with no digital output here (I have another blog and a YouTube channel, and they keep me busy too).

I remember those first few months, though, trying to generate some traffic for the blog (and for another one I've started more recently, and which has seen a traffic jump in the last few days).  

Was my tracking code working?  Was I going to be able to see which pages were getting any traffic, and where they were coming from?  What was the search term (yes, this goes back to those wonderful days when Google would actually tell you your visitors' search keywords)?

I had weeks and weeks of zero traffic, except for me checking my pages.  Then I discovered my first genuine user - who wasn't me - actually visiting my website.  Yes, it was a hard-coded HTML website and I had dutifully copied and pasted my tag code into each page...  did it work?  Yes, and I could prove it:  traffic wasn't zero.

So, if you're in the point (and some people are) of building out a blog, website or other online presence - or if you can remember the days when you did - remember the day that traffic wasn't zero.  We all implemented the tag code at some point; or sent the first marketing email, and it's always a moment of relief when that traffic starts to appear.

Small beginnings:  this is the session graph for the first ten months of 2010, for this blog.  It's not filtered, and it suggests that I was visiting it occasionally to check that posts had uploaded correctly!  Sometimes, it's okay to celebrate that something isn't zero any more.

And, although you didn't ask, here's the same period January-October 2020, which quietly proves that my traffic increases (through September) when I don't write new articles.  Who knew?








Thursday, 24 June 2021

How long should I run my test for?

 A question I've been facing more frequently recently is "How long can you run this test for?", and its close neighbour "Could you have run it for longer?"

Different testing programs have different requirements:  in fact, different tests have different requirements.  The test flight of the helicopter Ingenuity on Mars lasted 39.1 seconds, straight up and down.  The Wright Brothers' first flight lasted 12 seconds, and covered 120 feet.  Which was the more informative test?  Which should have run longer?

There are various ideas around testing, but the main principle is this:  test for long enough to get enough data to prove or disprove your hypothesis.  If your hypothesis is weak, you may never get enough data.  If you're looking for a straightforward winner/loser, then make sure you understand the concept of confidence and significance.

What is enough data?  It could be 100 orders.  It could be clicks on a banner : the first test recipe to reach 100 clicks - or 1,000, or 10,000 - is the winner (assuming it has a large enough lead over the other recipes). 

An important limitation to consider is this:  what happens if your test recipe is losing?  Losing money; losing leads; losing quotes; losing video views.  Can you keep running a test just to get enough data to show why it's losing?  Testing suddenly becomes an expensive business, when each extra day is costing you revenue.   One of the key advantages of testing over 'launch it and see' is the ability to switch the test off if it loses; how much of that advantage do you want to give up just to get more data on your test recipe?

Maybe your test recipe started badly.  After all, many do:  the change of experience from the normal site design to your new, all-improved, management-funded, executive-endorsed design is going to come as a shock to your loyal customers, and it's no surprise when your test recipe takes a nose-dive in performance for a few days.  Or weeks.  But how long can you give your design before you have to admit that it's not just the shock of the new design, (sometimes called 'confidence sickness') but that there are aspects of the new design that need to be changed before it will reach parity with your current site?  A week?  Two weeks?  A month?  Looking at data over time will help here.  How was performance in week 1?  Week 2?  Week 3?  It's possible for a test to recover, but if the initial drop was severe, then you may never recover the overall picture, but if you can find that the fourth week was actually flat (for new and return visitors) then you've found the point where users have adjusted to your new design.

If, however, the weekly gaps are widening, or staying the same, then it's time to pack up and call it a day.

Let's not forget that you probably have other tests in your pipeline which are waiting for the traffic that you're using on your test.  How long can they wait until launch?

So, how long should you run your test for?  As long as possible to get the data you need, and maybe longer if you can, unless it's
- suffering from confidence sickness (keep it running)
- losing badly, and consistently (unless you're prepared to pay for your test data)
- losing and holding up your testing pipeline

Similar posts I've written about online testing

Getting an online testing program off the ground
Building Momentum in Online testing
How many of your tests win?

Wright Brothers Picture:

"Released to Public: Wilber and Orville Wright with Flyer II at Huffman Prairie, 1904 (NASA GPN-2002-000126)" by pingnews.com is marked with CC PDM 1.0

Friday, 30 April 2021

Sums of Cubes

 This puzzle comes from a tweet by Ed Southall (@EdSouthall), who identified the following mathematical relationship:

3³ + 5³ + 2³ = 160 1³ + 6³ + 0³ = 217 2³ + 1³ + 7³ = 352 3³ + 5³ + 2³ = 160

The question (not posed, but I'm answering it anyway) is: Is this a unique relationship, or are there more like it?

And the answer is that there are a lot more like it.  I have carried out a brief search and found a total of eight specific groups.  Here they are, in the order that I discovered them (starting with 100, the first three-digit number).

Terminate at 1 

1³ + 0³ + 0³ = 1

1³ = 1

It's not exactly earth-shattering, but here's the first case:  terminates at 1.  Example numbers which do this are: 100, 112, and 121.

Terminate at 153

1³ + 0³ + 2³ = 9

9³ = 729

7³ + 2³ + 9³ = 1080

1³ + 8³ = 513

5³ + 1³ + 3³ = 153

1³ + 5³ + 3³ = 153

Other numbers which do this are: 108, 111, and 135.  The example of 102 goes via 1080, while 105 follows a longer route:

1³ + 0³ + 5³ = 126

1³ + 2³ + 6³ = 225

2³ + 2³ + 5³ = 141

1³ + 4³ + 1³ = 66 6³ + 6³ = 432 4³ + 3³ + 2³ = 99 9³ + 9³ = 1458 1³ +4³ + 5³ + 8³ = 702 7³ + 2³ = 351

3³ + 5³ + 1³ = 153

1³ + 5³ + 3³ = 153

Loop with a low of 55

1³ + 0³ + 3³ = 28

2³ + 8³ = 520 5³ + 2³ = 133

1³ + 3³ + 3³ = 55
5³ + 5³ = 250
2³ + 5³ = 133

Terminate at 371

1³ + 0³ + 4³ = 65
6³ + 5³ = 341
3³ + 4³ + 1³ = 92
9³ + 2³ = 737
7³ + 3³ + 7³ = 713
7³ + 1³ + 3³ = 371
3³ + 7³ + 1³ = 371

Terminate at 370

1³ + 0³ + 9³ = 730
3³ + 7³ + 0³ = 370
3³ + 7³ + 0³ = 370

Loop around 160  (the example given in the question)
1³ + 1³ + 5³ = 127
1³ + 2³ + 7³ = 352
3³ + 5³ + 2³ = 160
1³ + 6³ =217
2³ + 1³ + 7³ = 352

Loop around 136 and 244  
1³ + 3³ + 6³ = 244
2³ + 4³ + 4³ = 136

407: Identity
4³ + 0³ + 7³ = 407

Summary


The eight conclusions of the 'cubic sums' puzzle for three-digit numbers (which I found) are: 
Terminate at 1
Terminate at 153
Loop around 55  (55, 250, 153, 55) 
Terminate at 371
Terminate at 370
Loop around 160 (160, 217, 352, 160)
Loop around 136 and 244  
407 - identity

There are probably other 'identities' but there's no pattern to them and they would only be found by trial and error (or an algorithm).

Summary of results for 101 to 151

Start Result
101 371
102 153
103 Loop 55
104 371
105 153
106 Loop 106
107 371
108 153
109 370
110 371
111 153
112 1
113 371
114 153
115 Loop 160
116 371
117 153
118 370
119 371
120 153
121 1
122 371
123 153
124 370
125 371
126 153
127 Loop 160
128 371
129 153
130 Loop 55
131 371
132 153
133 Loop 55
134 371
135 153
136 Loop 136
137 371
138 153
139 370
140 371
141 153
142 370
143 371
144 153
145 370
146 371
147 153
148 370
149 371
150 153
151 Loop 160


It's interesting (and probably coincidental) to note that 137 to 150 show a repeating pattern of their own - the results go through a sequence 371, 1543, 370).  This is probably only a coincidence, but it's interesting how these results crop up!


Tuesday, 23 February 2021

Knowing Your KPI is Key

I've written in the past about KPIs, and today I find myself sitting at my computer about to re-tell a story about KPIs - with another twist.

Two years ago, almost to the day, I introduced you all to Albert, Britney and Charles, my three fictitious car salespeople.  Back in 2019, they were selling hybrid cars, and we had enough KPIs to make sure that each of them was a winner in some way (except Albert.  He was our 'control', and he was only there to make the others look good.  Sorry, Albert).

Well, two years on, selling cars has gone online.  Covid-19 and all that means that sales of cars are now handled remotely - with video views, emails, and Zoom calls - and targets have been realigned as a result.  The management team have realised that KPIs need to change in line with the new targets (which makes sense), and there are now a number of performance indicators being tracked.

Here are the results from January 2021 for our three long-standing (or long-suffering) salespeople.







Metric Albert BritneyCharles
Zoom sessions 411 225 510
Calls answered 320 243 366
Leads generated 127 77198
Cars sold 40 5960
Revenue (£) 201,000 285,000203,500
Average car value (£) 5025 48303391
Conversion (contact to lead) 17.4% 16.5%22.6%
Conversion (lead to sale) 31.5% 76.6%30.3%

And again we ask ourselves:  who was the best salesperson?  And, more important, which of the KPIs is actually the KEY performance indicator?

Albert:  had the highest average car value

Britney:  had the highest revenue (40% more than Albert or Charles) and by far the highest conversion from lead to sale.

Charles:  had the most Zoom sessions; calls answered; leads generated; cars sold and conversion from contact  to lead.

Surely Charles won?  Except that wages, overheads and shareholder dividends aren't paid with Zoom sessions; bonuses aren't paid in phone calls and pensions aren't paid with actual cars.

The KPI of most businesses (and certainly this one) is revenue - or, more specifically, profit margin.  It's very nice to be able to talk about other metrics and to use these to improve the business, but if you're a business and your KPI isn't something related to money, then you're probably not aiming for the right target.  

Yes, you can certainly use other metrics to improve the business:  for example, Charles desperately needs to learn how to sell higher-value cars.  He's extremely productive - even prolific - with the customer contacts, but he's £1400 down per car compared to Britney,  and £1600 down per car compared to Albert.  Additionally, if Britney learned to improve her sales conversations and Zoom technique so that it was faster and more efficient, her sales volumes would increase.  This use of data to drive action is extremely helpful, and this will make your analysis actionable.

So:  metrics and KPIs aren't the same thing.  Select the KPI that actually matches the business aim (typically margin and revenue) and don't get distracted by lesser KPIs that are actually just calculated ratios.  Use all the metrics to improve business performance, but pick your winner based on what really matters to your company.

I have looked at KPIs in some my other articles:

The Importance of Being Earnest with your KPIs
Why Test Recipe KPIs are Vital
Web Analytics and Testing - A summary so far



Monday, 25 January 2021

A Plea for Small Businesses

How can small businesses survive another UK national lockdown?  Is it even possible?  Since March 2020, UK society has undergone a paradigm shift, as everything has gone remote, online and socially distanced.  Everything, it seems, except businesses who haven't made the jump.

But how can small businesses, with small or no marketing budgets, stay afloat?

I've seen some great examples of local small businesses making the jump to online selling, and here's a summary of my informal research, presented as suggestions or advice:


1.  Share photos of the goods on your shelves
We still want to shop.  We miss being able to actually see the products we want to purchase.  We want to browse your goods, look at the items you're selling, and come up with purchase ideas, gift ideas and so on.  Get your photos up on your social media channels (Facebook seems to be the preferred platform) and show people that your shop is still stocked, even if it's closed.  Include the prices, or price ranges and show that you're still selling.  There is really nothing more infuriating than seeing pictures of amazing products on shelves (they could be collectable toys; they could be bespoke pottery items, designer clothes or whatever) and NOT having a price.  And if customers respond to your pictures and, for example, ask what the prices are, then RESPOND TO THEM!

Items on shelves with clear prices... definitely a good idea!

2.  Have multiple communication options
Some customers like social media.  Some like email.  Some prefer text messages, and others will probably want to speak to you (or your staff).  List all your communication channels on all your sites - it might be true that Facebook users will message you on Facebook, but they may actually prefer a different channel.  Do you have a website?  Link to it in your posts and in your profile.


Website; landline; mobile; facebook; email... list them all!  

3. Respond to all your social media
I can't stress this one enough (and I've written this in full capitals already).  I have personally made contact with a local small business on a number of occasions via Facebook messenger, and have tried to order various items from them.  I get as far as "I'd like to buy product number 1234, please can you order it." and then ... nothing.  If customers are reaching out to you, then reply to them - ask them to contact you via phone, or something, so that you can arrange payment.   Which brings me onto the next point...

4.  List your payment and delivery options
Should we send you a payment to your bank via online banking?  Do we click and collect, and pay you via a card machine?  Do you want cash on delivery?  And do you deliver?  What's your delivery radius?  Do you offer click and collect, or do you send orders out via Royal Mail/Hermes/Yodel?

We want to shop local.  We want to shop small.  A lockdown isn't going to stop us, just don't let it stop you.

Sunday, 27 December 2020

Review: Transformers - War for Cybertron Siege: Episode 6

Will the robots zombies defeat the Autobots?  Will Optimus be able to reach the Allspark?  Will Bumblebee, Arcee and Cog escape from Soundblaster with their stolen energon?  Will they even survive with their lives intact?

It was cliffhanger city at the end of the last episode, so let's jump straight in.

The Autobots do indeed take some damage from the robot zombies, the so-called "Sparkless" and their seemingly unmotivated attack; while Optimus focuses on the Allspark, which is tantalisingly out of reach. No, wait, it's actually within reach, and just considerably smaller than it appears.  Moonracer (AKA Sergeant RedShirt) makes the ultimate sacrifice for the cause.  Optimus reaches the Allspark, and his contact with it causes all the Sparkless to disintegrate to dust.  Too easy, much too easy.

Impactor, Sideswipe and team have to protect the spacebridge from the Decepticon seekers.  Will they make it?

And will Bumblebee's heist succeed, or will Soundblaster's army of mercenaries get them?  Well, Cog is fast enough and accurate enough to take out Soundblaster's troops, while they suffer from Stormtrooper Syndrome and collectively fail to hit the heroes once.  Bumblebee gets another vision from the Alpha Trion protocols and is inconveniently incapacitated while they try to make their getaway.  No problem, Arcee pulls him out of the driving seat of the escape vehicle (because they can't transform into vehicles of their own, obviously) and sets off at speed.

This massively convoluted plan may just work.  The Ark, fully charged up with the energon that Bumblebee stole, flies to the Spacebridge.  I've given up trying to understand what's going on here, except that maybe they're going to rescue the team that was fixing it?  The spacebridge activates just in time, while Elita-1 continues to complain, even if there's nothing to complain about.  

Optimus delays the inevitable Decepticon attack, while he and Megatron have a philosophical debate.  Optimus is going to destroy Cybertron; Megatron is going to enslave it.  Megatron steals the Allspark from Optimus; Bumblebee immediately steals it back.  The Decepticons mount their attack (they have a recurring problem with their shooting accuracy which is laughable, when they even remember to fire their weapons) and it takes the arrival of Omega Supreme to help the Autobots launch the Allspark into the Spacebridge, and get the Ark off the planet.  Elita-1 (still complaining) says she must stay behind to protect the launch of the Ark, while Omega Supreme seems to be doing a perfectly good job of that himself, towering over the Decepticons.  The Ark also has a wide range of weapons which have been sitting idle all through the series, and which are also fully capable of keeping the Decepticons at bay.

So:  Optimus throws the Allspark into the Spacebridge, and then the Autobots (including Optimus) fly the Ark into the Spacebridge, abandoning Cybertron to the Decepticons, and a fraction of the Autobots (including Elita 1, Chromia, Red Alert and Jetfire).

This was a chaotic and strange episode:  it did draw all the previous storylines together and make them work together, but it had some very strange gaps in it:

- Why didn't the Autobots take the Allspark with them in the Ark?  Why launch it separately?  Flinging it into the spacebridge and then flying after it in the Ark makes as much sense as firing a bullet up (or throwing a ball) into the air, and then trying to run and catch it, instead of just carrying it with you and running.  It made no sense.

- The Decepticon virus incapacitated all Autobot systems but didn't damage the Autobots themselves?  And didn't affect the Ark?

- The Sparkless robot zombies?  Why, oh why?

Overall, I have to say that I did enjoy this series.  The visuals were as good, or even better, than any other visualisation of the Transformers that we've seen - with the exception of the Bumblebee movie.  The characterisations were good, although I'd have given Elita-1 slightly more personality other than cynical pessimistic moaner.  Megatron was very well written, and actually derives sympathy for his cause (compared to Ultra Magnus who was such an optimist that he thought he could go and speak with Megatron and expect to leave Decepticon HQ alive, and instead ended up helping Megatron's plans).

The new series starts on 30 December, which is a few days away from now (hence I'm writing this in readiness for the new episodes).  The final episode here ends with Teletraan 1 detecting an alien space vessel.  Opinions are divided in our household, between either Earth space vessels, or the Decepticon Nemesis.  Hopefully it'll be more than meets the eye.

Transformers War For Cyberton Siege: Episode Reviews

Episode 1
Setting the scene, as Megatron starts executing his plan on Cybertron

Episode 2
Optimus Prime and Ultra Magnus make some questionable decisions, as Shockwave searches for the Allspark

Episode 3
Megatron twists history to suit his own ends, while Impactor and Skyfire question their loyalties.

Episode 4
Megatron makes progress with his plan, while the Alpha Trion Protocols choose a new host.

Episode 5
Optimus Prime searches for the Allspark, Wheeljack needs more energon, and Megatron prepares to commit genocide.

Episode 6
Will the Autobots be able to secure the Space bridge, and the energon they need, and the Allspark?



Wednesday, 9 December 2020

Review: Transformers War For Cyberton: Siege: Episode 5

At the end of the last episode, we saw Bumblebee receive the Alpha Trion protocols, meaning that he'll be a prominent character in this series (although I truly wish he wasn't).  However, things improve for the storyline overall with Soundwave making a valuable contribution; I wish they'd kept his voice closer to the original 1980s cartoon series, but the new version will suffice.  Soundwave tracks the Alpha Trion protocols and the network they used to move around the planet.  Shockwave has a 'secret experiment' which can use this network and bring it down.  The virus will destroy all processors and mainframes that use the Autobot code; this would deny the Autobots one of their key advantages (although the collateral damage will be significant).

Will the Decepticons go ahead with a plan to destroy an Autobot advantage, even if it causes widespread damage to Cybertron's infrastructure?  Did they wreck Sherman Dam??  You may not enjoy the story, but the visuals remain outstanding.

Say, "Cheese!"

Meanwhile, Jetfire is trying to defect to the Autobots, having realised that Megatron is bent on genocide, and that's too strong for his taste.  Jetfire's ideals conflict with Megatron's, and Megatron has gone too far by murdering Ultra Magnus.  We all know Jetfire ends up as an Autobot, and we can see how this should work out, although it's not going to be a smooth ride.

Wheeljack and Bumblebee partner up to try and get the Alpha Trion protocols out of Bumblebee's brain, in an attempt to write him out of the storyline.  Nobody was in a rush to get them out of Ultra Magnus's head, so I like this idea (although I know it won't work).  The Allspark, according to the map, is in the Sea of Rust (so why didn't Ultra Magnus point this out?  Just saying).  Elita-1 continues to needle Optimus Prime at every opportunity, "We're as low on hope as we are on energon."  Honestly, she's just becoming too much of an irritation to be helpful.  They might be able to traverse the Sea of Rust with Jetfire's help - what a coincidence that he's just decided to join the Autobots in their fight.  Elita 1 says of course that this is tactically unwise, but then says they need to carry on anyway.  She really isn't bringing much to the party, except some unwanted negativity.

Elita-1, Chief Autobot Naysayer

We left Impactor, Ratchet and their uneasy group repairing the Space Bridge.  The repairs are a success, and Mirage generates a large-scale hologram to hide it.  

Wheeljack, meanwhile, needs raw energon to get The Ark up and flying - so Bumblebee again takes the lead.

It's not all wins though, as Megatron and his cronies are able to infiltrate Ultra Magnus's brain and start destroying the Autobot network.  I am becoming increasingly unimpressed with Ultra Magnus's decision to try to negotiate with the Decepticons, way back in Episode 2.  He was storing the Alpha Trion protocols; he's got access to this Autobot network; he knows Megatron can't be trusted... his decision was naive at best, and utterly misguided.  He's done more damage to the Autobot cause than Elita 1, and that's saying something.

On the Autobot side, the plots are getting complicated.  There's the Space Bridge, which has been reactivated because... it's there.  There's the Ark, which is the Autobot's main base, which Optimus wants to use to possibly flee the planet, although I'm not sure.  Whatever ity is, it all has to happen at the same time, because Optimus says so.  I really  miss the decisive, confident Optimus Prime of the 1980s cartoon; this version is a wet lettuce by comparison.

On the Decepticon side, the aim is simple:  defeat the Autobots through propaganda; destroying their assets, and direct physical confrontation whenever politically possible.

Who's going to win?

The Autobots go off with two aims:  get the raw energon from the Mercenary Soundblaster, and retrieve the Allspark from its safe location in the Sea of Rust.  This involves driving through lightning storms, dust storms and a multitude of other natural obstacles (if this was Earth; I don't recall Cybertron ever being dusty); and eventually reaching the site of the Allspark.  Optimus has, "A feeling, as if the Matrix itself sends a warning," and the next thing you know, they're engaging - sigh - in hand-to-hand combat with robot zombies.  We had similar zombies in the early episodes of Transformers Prime, and they are just as out-of-place here as they were there.  What's the point?  Can't we have some imaginative jeopardy between our heroes and the Allspark?  No, it's recycled robot zombies.   Will the heroes survive?

Here come the robot zombies... again...

The plan to obtain raw energon from Soundblaster also seems to be going off the rails: Soundblaster's guards scan Bumblebee, Arcee and Cog for weapons.  Cog transforms into a huge arsenal of weapons... but no, he's clean.  But wait, Soundblaster knew that all along... this isn't looking good for our heroes.

All-in-all:  a convoluted plot starts to take shape.  The Autobots want the Space Bridge, and the Ark (and the energon to power it), and the Allspark, in order to get the Allspark off Cybertron, and presumably flee themselves (in a chase to retrieve it from deep space).  It seems unnecessarily complicated, but it is what it is.  The Decepticons, on the other hand, are out to destroy the Autobots no matter the cost, and to seize the Allspark for themselves, in order to turn all the remaining Autobots into Decepticons.

It's not clear how all this will turn out in the end, but it's clear that the temporary jeopardy of Bumblee and the Energon Gang, and Optimus and the Allspark Gang is entirely temporary, and should be resolved very quickly in the next - and final - episode!

Transformers War For Cyberton Siege: Episode Reviews

Episode 1
Setting the scene, as Megatron starts executing his plan on Cybertron

Episode 2
Optimus Prime and Ultra Magnus make some questionable decisions, as Shockwave searches for the Allspark

Episode 3
Megatron twists history to suit his own ends, while Impactor and Skyfire question their loyalties.

Episode 4
Megatron makes progress with his plan, while the Alpha Trion Protocols choose a new host.

Episode 5
Optimus Prime searches for the Allspark, Wheeljack needs more energon, and Megatron prepares to commit genocide.

Episode 6
Will the Autobots be able to secure the Space bridge, and the energon they need, and the Allspark?