First times of 2021

Even though I'm now in my mid-40s, I'm pleased to say that I'm still doing things for the first time (and lockdown doesn't count).

Here's a short list of things I've done for the first time in 2021 - good and bad alike.

1. Home-schooling three children, simultaneously.  The lockdown of spring 2021 is something I would like to forget, but I will remember that I was mostly able to home-school our three children (while my wife went to teach at her school) and get them through that time relatively successfully. We managed to do more than just survive, and I'm thankful for that.

2.  Teaching Ben to ride his bike. At the other end of the scale, I was delighted to teach Ben to ride his bike; it took some time, and we were dependent on the weather for our training slots, but after some back-breaking effort, and an adjustment to the height of his saddle, he was off riding solo.  Lizzie's uncle taught her to ride several years ago during a summer holiday when I was working through the summer.

3.  Three funerals, including the first for someone younger than me,  and the first which I watched remotely.  These do not get any easier, and Covid has meant that 2021 has been challenging in many, many ways.

4.  First time attending an airshow with the full family of five: this was a bonus to our August holiday, as we were able to attend an air display near the cottage we were staying in.  It was just right for our family too, with enough entertainment for everyone, including those who have little or no interest in aircraft.  I was pleased to be able to plan the day out and for it to go so well (it was dry but extremely windy!).

5.  First time deliberately driving to intercept the Red Arrows on a transit flight (ie en route from their airbase to a display location).  The Red Arrows flew a long route across the country to display at the G7 summit in the autumn, and I took two of the three children to watch them fly over Mow Cop Castle (on time, as planned).  Monitoring their flight plans (through NOTAMS) has become very useful!

6.  At work, I was promoted to become a people mananger, which entailed a number of consequences.  At the start of 2021 I had no intention of ever becoming a people mananger, but on 1 September, I became the manager of my team.  This had a number of consequent firsts: holding interviews for new staff, first hiring, first, "Thank you for applying, I am sorry to inform you..." and so on.  It's been an eventful and exciting time, and in many ways, every day has been a first.

7.  And for something completely trivial: early on the year, my wife confessed (that was her word) that she had started to enjoy South Korean dramas (so-called K-Dramas).  Well, in turns out that there's a wide range of them available on Netflix, and so for the first time we watched several series of K-dramas (with subtitles). Our clear favourite is Crash Landing On You, which is a unique, funny and touching romantic drama... it's difficult to classify as anything other than a good K-drama and it's highly recommended. We didn't enjoy Sky High (too intense and more of a thriller than a comedy) and The Secret Life of My Secretary was farcical.  We are currently watching Kim's Convenience, which is about a Korean family in Canada... possibly the best comedy of the year.

On the whole, I am pleased with what we accomplished as a family in 2021 (and what I achieved personally), and am more pleased to be saying goodbye to it, and hello to 2022.

The Book of Boba Fett: Episode 1

CONTAINS SPOILERS

The Book Of Boba Fett, Episode 1: Stranger in a Strange Land

One of Star Wars' most famous supporting characters, Boba Fett had barely a handful of lines in the original trilogy but had an extensive back-story retroactively created in Episode 2: Attack of the Clones. His story ended dramatically in Episode 6, with his ignominious head-first plunge into the mouth of the Sarlaac Pit on Tattoine, but he was mysteriously resurrected for the new Mandalorian series.  In fact, Boba's plight has been discussed repeatedly and at length over the past 40 years:  did he escape, or was he slowly digested over a thousand years?  And if he did escape, how did he do it?

Episode 1 of the new Disney+ series, The Book of Boba Fett, starts with Boba in a bacta chamber (lying horizontally, compared to Luke and Anakin Skywalker who were vertical in theirs).  He's suffering flashbacks in his dreams, and well over half of the episode time is spent in flashback, which is helpful as the current story is set several years after the Sarlaac pit.

Boba blasted his way out of the Sarlaac Pit using his wrist-mounted flamethrowers, and clambered his way through the desert sand, breaking through the surface of the sand exhausted and depleted.  And vulnerable. The Jawas find him first, and strip him of all his armour, weapons and gadgets. The Tusken raiders - the sand people - find him next, revive him and drag him off to their camp.  So, this is an origin (or re-origination) story, which reminded me of Batman Begins - the hero spends most of his time without his suit of armour.  His time with the Tusken raiders is typical desert prison material - there's no point trying to escape when the captors hold the water supply.  Nevertheless, Boba is determined to try - even after being betrayed by another captive, a red-coloured Rodian (like Greedo).

Events take a twist while Boba and his fellow prisoner are taken into the desert to dig for water.  Water on Tattoine is found in organisms that look like sea urchins and which hold water, and Boba is commanded to start digging for these urchins which live just below the surface of the sand.  The Tusken who is in charge is a youngling, a juvenile who needs to earn the respect of the camp, and who has been given prison duty to learn desert craft.

The Rodian, while digging for water urchins, uncovers a large, dangerous six-legged lizard creature.  After a dramatic and well-executed battle scene, the lizard makes short work of the Rodian, and starts pursuing the young Tusken.  Boba intervenes, leaping onto the back of the creature and using the chain that was previously shackling him to the Rodian to strangle the lizard.  The lizard falls down dead, and the Tusken lives to tell the tale.

Well, he would if he was an honest Tusken. Instead, he steals the credit and tells the rest of his tribe that he killed the creature.  He shows the tribe the spoils of 'his' victory - the head of the creature - and regales them with with details of the fight.  The action here is excellent - for a character who is covered head-to-toe in inscrutable costume, the young raider has a youthful animation - bobbing his head excitedly and rocking his shoulders with excitement and delight.

One of the older members of the sand people can see through this little Deception, and again without words or expression conveys this extremely well.  He hands Boba one of the water urchins to drink, knowing full well that there was no way that the young raider slew the lizard, and it must have been Boba's doing.

Boba in the present is a man who carries the wounds of his past.  This is not the same ruthless character who was Darth Vader's favourite Bounty hunter, and he wants to change the way things are run on Tattoine.  He has not recovered from his time in the Sarlaac pit, or his time with the sand people; as he explains: "The dreams have started again."  He sleeps in a bacta tank; his face and chest are layers of scar tissue; he trusts his lieutenant, Fennec Shand, but nobody else.

He has taken over Jabba's palace, which has not changed since the Hutt was in charge. The palace looks exactly the same as it did in Return of the Jedi, and the crew have used some of the same camera angles from the original film (but without any of the fanfare that accompanied the nostalgia shots in The Force Awakens  for example).  This understated approach works well, and underlines the fact that this might be the same building but it's not the same place.  Jabba's palace was full and noisy; Boba's residence is empty and quiet.  As he quietly remarks to Fennec at one point, "We're going to need a protocol droid."

Boba's entire approach to running his business on Tattoine is completely different to Jabba, and he says so. However, not everybody is keeping up with the regime change.  Citizens of Mos Espa still bring him tribute; local businesses are still paying him protection money and the local criminals are out to assassinate him.  Others think that his new ideas make him look weak, and expect him to pay tribute - the scene with the mayor's messenger are equally tense, awkward and hilarious.

He visits Mos Espa - a large, crowded city - on foot, helmet off. I guess when you've gone through the experiences with the Tuskens in the Tattoine desert, you realise that the man is more than just the armour he wears and the weapons he carries.  There follows a failed assassination attempt, and an impressive extended fight scene, where Boba and Fennec are ambushed by a team of well-trained soldiers, and need the assistance of their Gamorrian bodyguards (the same species that Jabba had as his bodyguards).  

This is a new, different Boba Fett, but this is still classic Star Wars, and I am excited to see how the Book of Boba Fett unfolds (weekly on Wednesdays on Disney+).

 

 

Advent: What does your voice look like?

 As you may know, I work from home - and I've been working from home for over 10 years, so when the pandemic hit last year, I was already very experienced in the challenges of remote working.  In fact, while most people were adjusting to talking to people they already knew over Zoom and Teams, I was carrying on as usual.  And in my case, that means working with people that I haven't met face-to-face. 

In September, I became the manager of my team, and out of a team of eight people, I've only met one of them in person.  More recently, I've been recruiting and interviewing people - again, without meeting them face-to-face.  I was interviewed for my job over the phone (Zoom wasn't a thing 10 years ago); now I'm interviewing via video conference.  That's technology for you.

When I first started remote working, everything was done over email and over the phone (with screen sharing over the computer), and all I had to work with was a voice and a name, and possibly a profile picture.  Even my manager and my team mates were voices and names, which slowly developed into personalities.  However, one of the things I inevitably did was to imagine faces for the people I was speaking to.  In my imagination, men with deep voices were generally taller (longer necks, larger lungs), while men with higher voices were shorter.  

It's a very strange experience when you meet somebody in person after having constructed an imaginary persona for them without knowing what they look like - all the knowledge, memories and experience of working with Jim, or Roger, or Carolyn, suddenly and immediately collide with the actual person you're meeting.  It's the exact opposite of meeting a stranger for the first time, and not knowing anything about them - the mental whiplash is bizarre (especially when your mental image of them is completely wrong).

There's also a different experience when you're on a conference call with multiple people but no video - and somebody starts speaking.  Who is that?  Who does that sound like?  What are they saying?  Who would normally use those words and ask those types of question?  What kind of accent is that?  One of my colleagues once commented that it's like watching an animated movie and trying to work out who the voice actors are!

So:  what does your voice look like?  We can build up a mental image of somebody based on their emails, their writing, and even in some conversations, but there is still this gap between who you are and what your voice looks like (have you ever watched Blind Date?).

What does God's voice look like?  The nation of Israel knew God's voice and had carefully written down and kept what He'd said, to form the Scriptures.  Did they know God?  Sort of, maybe, perhaps.  Did they know what His voice looked like?  No.

"In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.  He was with God in the beginning.  The Word became flesh, and dwelt among us.  No one has ever seen God, but the one and only Son, who is Himself God and is at the Father’s side, has made Him known." 
John 1:1, 1:14, 1:18

What does God's voice look like?

Jesus.

It's Not Zero!

 I started this blog many years ago.  It pre-dates at least two of my children, and possibly all three - back in the days when I had time to spare, time to write and time to think of interesting topics to write about.  Nowadays, it's a very different story, and I discovered that my last blog post was back in June.  I used to aim for one blog article per month, so that's two full months with no digital output here (I have another blog and a YouTube channel, and they keep me busy too).

I remember those first few months, though, trying to generate some traffic for the blog (and for another one I've started more recently, and which has seen a traffic jump in the last few days).  

Was my tracking code working?  Was I going to be able to see which pages were getting any traffic, and where they were coming from?  What was the search term (yes, this goes back to those wonderful days when Google would actually tell you your visitors' search keywords)?

I had weeks and weeks of zero traffic, except for me checking my pages.  Then I discovered my first genuine user - who wasn't me - actually visiting my website.  Yes, it was a hard-coded HTML website and I had dutifully copied and pasted my tag code into each page...  did it work?  Yes, and I could prove it:  traffic wasn't zero.

So, if you're in the point (and some people are) of building out a blog, website or other online presence - or if you can remember the days when you did - remember the day that traffic wasn't zero.  We all implemented the tag code at some point; or sent the first marketing email, and it's always a moment of relief when that traffic starts to appear.

Small beginnings:  this is the session graph for the first ten months of 2010, for this blog.  It's not filtered, and it suggests that I was visiting it occasionally to check that posts had uploaded correctly!  Sometimes, it's okay to celebrate that something isn't zero any more.

And, although you didn't ask, here's the same period January-October 2020, which quietly proves that my traffic increases (through September) when I don't write new articles.  Who knew?

How long should I run my test for?

 A question I've been facing more frequently recently is "How long can you run this test for?", and its close neighbour "Could you have run it for longer?"

Different testing programs have different requirements:  in fact, different tests have different requirements.  The test flight of the helicopter Ingenuity on Mars lasted 39.1 seconds, straight up and down.  The Wright Brothers' first flight lasted 12 seconds, and covered 120 feet.  Which was the more informative test?  Which should have run longer?

There are various ideas around testing, but the main principle is this:  test for long enough to get enough data to prove or disprove your hypothesis.  If your hypothesis is weak, you may never get enough data.  If you're looking for a straightforward winner/loser, then make sure you understand the concept of confidence and significance.

What is enough data?  It could be 100 orders.  It could be clicks on a banner : the first test recipe to reach 100 clicks - or 1,000, or 10,000 - is the winner (assuming it has a large enough lead over the other recipes). 

An important limitation to consider is this:  what happens if your test recipe is losing?  Losing money; losing leads; losing quotes; losing video views.  Can you keep running a test just to get enough data to show why it's losing?  Testing suddenly becomes an expensive business, when each extra day is costing you revenue.   One of the key advantages of testing over 'launch it and see' is the ability to switch the test off if it loses; how much of that advantage do you want to give up just to get more data on your test recipe?

Maybe your test recipe started badly.  After all, many do:  the change of experience from the normal site design to your new, all-improved, management-funded, executive-endorsed design is going to come as a shock to your loyal customers, and it's no surprise when your test recipe takes a nose-dive in performance for a few days.  Or weeks.  But how long can you give your design before you have to admit that it's not just the shock of the new design, (sometimes called 'confidence sickness') but that there are aspects of the new design that need to be changed before it will reach parity with your current site?  A week?  Two weeks?  A month?  Looking at data over time will help here.  How was performance in week 1?  Week 2?  Week 3?  It's possible for a test to recover, but if the initial drop was severe, then you may never recover the overall picture, but if you can find that the fourth week was actually flat (for new and return visitors) then you've found the point where users have adjusted to your new design.

If, however, the weekly gaps are widening, or staying the same, then it's time to pack up and call it a day.

Let's not forget that you probably have other tests in your pipeline which are waiting for the traffic that you're using on your test.  How long can they wait until launch?

So, how long should you run your test for?  As long as possible to get the data you need, and maybe longer if you can, unless it's
- suffering from confidence sickness (keep it running)
- losing badly, and consistently (unless you're prepared to pay for your test data)
- losing and holding up your testing pipeline

Wright Brothers Picture:

"Released to Public: Wilber and Orville Wright with Flyer II at Huffman Prairie, 1904 (NASA GPN-2002-000126)" by pingnews.com is marked with CC PDM 1.0

Sums of Cubes

 This puzzle comes from a tweet by Ed Southall (@EdSouthall), who identified the following mathematical relationship:

3³ + 5³ + 2³ = 160 1³ + 6³ + 0³ = 217 2³ + 1³ + 7³ = 352 3³ + 5³ + 2³ = 160

The question (not posed, but I'm answering it anyway) is: Is this a unique relationship, or are there more like it?

And the answer is that there are a lot more like it.  I have carried out a brief search and found a total of eight specific groups.  Here they are, in the order that I discovered them (starting with 100, the first three-digit number).

Terminate at 1 

1³ + 0³ + 0³ = 1

1³ = 1

It's not exactly earth-shattering, but here's the first case:  terminates at 1.  Example numbers which do this are: 100, 112, and 121.

Terminate at 153

1³ + 0³ + 2³ = 9

9³ = 729

7³ + 2³ + 9³ = 1080

1³ + 8³ = 513

5³ + 1³ + 3³ = 153

1³ + 5³ + 3³ = 153

Other numbers which do this are: 108, 111, and 135.  The example of 102 goes via 1080, while 105 follows a longer route:

1³ + 0³ + 5³ = 126

1³ + 2³ + 6³ = 225

2³ + 2³ + 5³ = 141

1³ + 4³ + 1³ = 66 6³ + 6³ = 432 4³ + 3³ + 2³ = 99 9³ + 9³ = 1458 1³ +4³ + 5³ + 8³ = 702 7³ + 2³ = 351

3³ + 5³ + 1³ = 153

1³ + 5³ + 3³ = 153

Loop with a low of 55

1³ + 0³ + 3³ = 28

2³ + 8³ = 520 5³ + 2³ = 133

1³ + 3³ + 3³ = 55

5³ + 5³ = 250

2³ + 5³ = 133

Terminate at 371

1³ + 0³ + 4³ = 65

6³ + 5³ = 341

3³ + 4³ + 1³ = 92

9³ + 2³ = 737

7³ + 3³ + 7³ = 713

7³ + 1³ + 3³ = 371

3³ + 7³ + 1³ = 371

Terminate at 370

1³ + 0³ + 9³ = 730

3³ + 7³ + 0³ = 370

3³ + 7³ + 0³ = 370

Loop around 160  (the example given in the question)

1³ + 1³ + 5³ = 127

1³ + 2³ + 7³ = 352

3³ + 5³ + 2³ = 160

1³ + 6³ =217

2³ + 1³ + 7³ = 352

Loop around 136 and 244  

1³ + 3³ + 6³ = 244

2³ + 4³ + 4³ = 136

407: Identity

4³ + 0³ + 7³ = 407

Summary

The eight conclusions of the 'cubic sums' puzzle for three-digit numbers (which I found) are: 

Terminate at 1
Terminate at 153
Loop around 55  (55, 250, 153, 55) 
Terminate at 371
Terminate at 370
Loop around 160 (160, 217, 352, 160)

Loop around 136 and 244  

407 - identity

There are probably other 'identities' but there's no pattern to them and they would only be found by trial and error (or an algorithm).

Summary of results for 101 to 151

Start Result

101 371

102 153

103 Loop 55

104 371

105 153

106 Loop 106

107 371

108 153

109 370

110 371

111 153

112 1

113 371

114 153

115 Loop 160

116 371

117 153

118 370

119 371

120 153

121 1

122 371

123 153

124 370

125 371

126 153

127 Loop 160

128 371

129 153

130 Loop 55

131 371

132 153

133 Loop 55

134 371

135 153

136 Loop 136

137 371

138 153

139 370

140 371

141 153

142 370

143 371

144 153

145 370

146 371

147 153

148 370

149 371

150 153

151 Loop 160

It's interesting (and probably coincidental) to note that 137 to 150 show a repeating pattern of their own - the results go through a sequence 371, 1543, 370).  This is probably only a coincidence, but it's interesting how these results crop up!

Knowing Your KPI is Key

 I've written in the past about KPIs, and today I find myself sitting at my computer about to re-tell a story about KPIs - with another twist.

Two years ago, almost to the day, I introduced you all to Albert, Britney and Charles, my three fictitious car salespeople.  Back in 2019, they were selling hybrid cars, and we had enough KPIs to make sure that each of them was a winner in some way (except Albert.  He was our 'control', and he was only there to make the others look good.  Sorry, Albert).

Well, two years on, and selling cars has gone online.  Covid-19 and all that means that sales of cars are now handled remotely - with video views, emails, and Zoom calls - and targets have been realigned as a result.  The management team have realised that KPIs need to change in line with the new targets (which makes sense), and there are now a number of performance indicators being tracked.

Here are the results from January 2021 for our three long-standing (or long-suffering) salespeople.

Metric	Albert	Britney	Charles
Zoom sessions	411	225	510
Calls answered	320	243	366
Leads generated	127	77	198
Cars sold	40	59	60
Revenue (£)	201,000	285,000	203,500
Average car value (£)	5025	4830	3391
Conversion (contact to lead)	17.4%	16.5%	22.6%
Conversion (lead to sale)	31.5%	76.6%	30.3%

And again we ask ourselves:  who was the best salesperson?  And, more important, which of the KPIs is actually the KEY performance indicator?

Albert:  had the highest average car value

Britney:  had the highest revenue (40% more than Albert or Charles) and by far the highest conversion from lead to sale.

Charles:  had the most Zoom sessions; calls answered; leads generated; cars sold and conversion from contact  to lead.

Surely Charles won?  Except that wages, overheads and shareholder dividends aren't paid with Zoom sessions; bonuses aren't paid in phone calls and pensions aren't paid with actual cars.

The KPI of most businesses (and certainly this one) is revenue - or, more specifically, profit margin.  It's very nice to be able to talk about other metrics and to use these to improve the business, but if you're a business and your KPI isn't something related to money, then you're probably not aiming for the right target.  

Yes, you can certainly use other metrics to improve the business:  for example, Charles desperately needs to learn how to sell higher-value cars.  He's extremely productive - even prolific - with the customer contacts, but he's £1400 down per car compared to Britney,  and £1600 down per car compared to Albert.  Additionally, if Britney learned to improve her sales conversations and Zoom technique so that it was faster and more efficient, her sales volumes would increase.

So:  metrics and KPIs aren't the same thing.  Select the KPI that actually matches the business aim (typically margin and revenue) and don't get distracted by lesser KPIs that are actually just calculated ratios.  Use all the metrics to improve business performance, but pick your winner based on what really matters to your company.

A Plea for Small Businesses

How can small businesses survive another UK national lockdown?  Is it even possible?  Since March 2020, UK society has undergone a paradigm shift, as everything has gone remote, online and socially distanced.  Everything, it seems, except businesses who haven't made the jump.

But how can small businesses, with small or no marketing budgets, stay afloat?

I've seen some great examples of local small businesses making the jump to online selling, and here's a summary of my informal research, presented as suggestions or advice:

https://www.classic-collectables.co.uk/  

1.  Share photos of the goods on your shelves
We still want to shop.  We miss being able to actually see the products we want to purchase.  We want to browse your goods, look at the items you're selling, and come up with purchase ideas, gift ideas and so on.  Get your photos up on your social media channels (Facebook seems to be the preferred platform) and show people that your shop is still stocked, even if it's closed.  Include the prices, or price ranges and show that you're still selling.  There is really nothing more infuriating than seeing pictures of amazing products on shelves (they could be collectable toys; they could be bespoke pottery items, designer clothes or whatever) and NOT having a price.  And if customers respond to your pictures and, for example, ask what the prices are, then RESPOND TO THEM!

Items on shelves with clear prices... definitely a good idea!

2.  Have multiple communication options
Some customers like social media.  Some like email.  Some prefer text messages, and others will probably want to speak to you (or your staff).  List all your communication channels on all your sites - it might be true that Facebook users will message you on Facebook, but they may actually prefer a different channel.  Do you have a website?  Link to it in your posts and in your profile.

Website; landline; mobile; facebook; email... list them all!  

3. Respond to all your social media
I can't stress this one enough (and I've written this in full capitals already).  I have personally made contact with a local small business on a number of occasions via Facebook messenger, and have tried to order various items from them.  I get as far as "I'd like to buy product number 1234, please can you order it." and then ... nothing.  If customers are reaching out to you, then reply to them - ask them to contact you via phone, or something, so that you can arrange payment.   Which brings me onto the next point...

4.  List your payment and delivery options
Should we send you a payment to your bank via online banking?  Do we click and collect, and pay you via a card machine?  Do you want cash on delivery?  And do you deliver?  What's your delivery radius?  Do you offer click and collect, or do you send orders out via Royal Mail/Hermes/Yodel?

We want to shop local.  We want to shop small.  A lockdown isn't going to stop us, just don't let it stop you.