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Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts

Thursday, 25 September 2025

Port Vale 0 Arsenal 2 Match Report

Port Vale vs Arsenal, 24 September 2025

There are only two teams in the football league which aren’t named after the places where they’re located; and yesterday they met for only the second time in 30 years.  Port Vale (Stoke on Trent) and Arsenal (London) are currently 61 league places apart, and to be fair it showed: Arsenal just weren’t as good as they should have been on paper.  The wage bill for one of Arsenal’s players is more than the entire Port Vale team’s wages; after last night’s performance, I wonder if Arteta is getting his value for money?

It was a disappointing performance from the London side, who seemed to have trouble doing anything with their overwhelming levels of possession.  After grabbing an early goal, they struggled to do anything positive or meaningful with the ball, despite the professional encouragement from their fans, and the consistent support of the officials.  The Arsenal goalkeeper, Kepa Arrizabalaga, passed a pre-game fitness check, which was more than could be said for the linesman monitoring the Port Vale defensive line.  He continued to show signs of an ongoing shoulder injury, which prevented him from lifting his flag anywhere above horizontal for the entire first half, while the Arsenal forwards frequently found themselves receiving the ball with nobody but the goalkeeper to beat.  You think I’m kidding?  There were zero Arsenal offsides in the whole game.

The linesmen, whose shoulder shows signs of improving

The referee too seemed in awe of the Premiership team’s visit to Vale Park, admiring their ‘strength on the ball’ and ‘technique’ which frequently left the Vale players getting a close up of the turf as they were ‘tackled’ off the ball.  Strangely, this was not a symmetrical arrangement; whenever an Arsenal player was dispossessed, this was seen as a sign of rough treatment and was typically identified as an illegal challenge. 

The referee reminds the Port Vale strikers to be kind to the Arsenal goalkeeper

He's not offside, ok?

One thing I must confess, though, is that Arsenal didn’t employ cynical and overly defensive strategies after obtaining their opening goal.  They kept moving the ball with good technique – they didn’t anything particularly productive with it (they achieved over four times the number of passes that Vale did), and most of their second-half corners were passed all the way back to the halfway line – and wore Vale down with efficiency and energy.  They saved their timewasting for more subtle tactics, and one of the most egregious was with the substitutions.  I’m not expert at football, but watching one of the Arsenal players (and an England player too) dawdle his way off the pitch when he was substituted was more gamesmanship than sportsmanship.  Maybe he wasn’t looking forward to the long drive home?  Maybe he just wanted to stay and play a bit more?


It's a long walk to the touchline.  So long, that even I could get my camera out, focus it, and take a photo.

He wasn’t the only one in no hurry to leave the field of play, as other substitutions took longer than was probably fair. There were delays taking throw-ins, there were in-team discussions about whose turn it was to take this particular corner, and maybe you’d like to try it this time?
Here's an Arsenal corner.  Coming soon.

Port Vale, for their part, showed considerable effort but also looked to be in awe of their visitors.  During the second half, the Vale front line got a hold of the ball a couple of times – at one point in a very promising position facing goal on the edge of the penalty area, only to flounder at the last minute.  In fact, the data shows that Vale didn’t even achieve a single shot on target.  It was going to be one of those nights.

While being a significant disappointment for the Arsenal, who only scraped an early goal and a late one, the game was entertaining for sure.  One of the funniest parts of the match came in the second half, when, after a Vale substitution, Arsenal were expected to restart play with a throw-in.  There was a breakdown in communication between the referee and the Arsenal player: the referee pointed persistently to where the throw-in should be taken (approximately 5 metres ahead of the halfway line, on the Arsenal left), while the Arsenal player was standing around 10-15 metres further forward of that point.  There then followed a confused discussion between the Arsenal player, trying to take the throw in, and the referee, vehemently pointing 10 metres further back.  This happened in front of where we were sitting, and with the crowd around us (did I mention this was virtually a sell-out?) we did our best to point out the miscommunication.

Taking a throw-in.  It's supposed to be from where the ball went out.  Who knew?

Even though miscommunication is frequent in football matches, and it was noted among the fans.  Arsenal brought almost 3,000 fans to Vale Park, and they stood, sang and shouted with a high degree of organization and professionalism.  There was genuinely no unpleasantness between the two sets of fans, none of the jeering or rude gesturing I have observed at other grounds, and everybody got on with shouting for their team.  At least I think that’s what we were doing – in some cases I struggled to turn the chanted syllables into phrases, or even specific words, and on a couple of occasions I managed it, then regretted it.  Football fans can certainly employ some colourful metaphors.

Speaking of organization and professionalism: the Arsenal players certainly showed this, at a completely different level to the Vale players.  At one point in the first half, Vale gained possession (legally and everything), and in order to hold possession, passed it back from the midfield to the defenders, where it was carefully passed along the line.  But not for very long: with alarming efficiency, the Arsenal players deployed a 10-man press, with the defenders moving up to the halfway line and the forward players squeezing possession.  Vale almost crumbled in the face of this threat, and did well to keep the ball away from their goal:  Arsenal in possession were interesting; Arsenal chasing possession were terrifying.



The size of Arsenal’s squad was clear to see, with players at the match wearing numbers like 41, 49 and 56.  This was probably the Arsenal B-team.  I hope so, for Arteta's sake.  On the other hand, the Port Vale shirts didn't even show a sponsor.

Football is an 11-a-side sport, with shirts numbered 1-56.

The stats tell the story fairly well:  Arsenal dominated all the main numbers, and have to be disappointed with the output from their efforts.  A lucky early goal, and one at the end made it for them. The game was billed as a David vs Goliath clash—except David forgot his slingshot and Goliath turned up wearing Crocs.  Arsenal, sitting proudly at 2nd in the Premier League, took on Port Vale, languishing at 19th in League One, a full 61 league places below. The result? A narrow and nervy 2–0 win for the North London giants. Yes, really.  They say that you can only beat the team in front of you, and that’s all that Arsenal managed, when a much more impressive scoreline was expected.  Sad times for all.

Possession
Arsenal 81%
Port Vale 19%

Passes
Arsenal 789  (731 completed, 93%)
Port Vale 183 (115 completed, 63%)

Shots
Arsenal 11  (7 inside box , 4 outside)
Port Vale 3 (2 inside box, 1 outside)

Shots on Target
Arsenal 4
Port Vale 0

Corners
Arsenal 6
Port Vale 1

Offsides
Arsenal 0
Port Vale 2

Tuesday, 19 March 2024

Rollarama World Football Dice Game

Rollarama World Football is a "shootout dice and card game", and so when I saw it on the shelf of a charity shop recently, I decided to give it a try.




The game comes with full instructions on how to play it "properly", but I just liked the idea and the packaging which clearly showed a six-sided die, a 12-sided die and a 20-sided die.

The dice values aren't 1-6, 1-12 and 1-20; instead the values are the number of goals a particular team scores in a game.  Each country (there are 30 in total) has a card which shows if it's assigned the 6, 12 or 20 sided die and you roll that die for that country when it plays a match.  For example, Canada is a D6 team, while Portugal is a D20 team and Mexico is a D12 team.  There are rules included on how to play this as a two-player game, using the dice and the cards, but I found a more interesting game for one player using the same raw materials.

The questions I was most interested in answering are how fair the game is, and if the game could be won by one of the 'weaker' D6 teams.  To do this, I set up my own World Football championship, the 2023-4 Winter World Cup.  This comprises five groups of six countries (the 30 countries in total) who will play in their own mini-league.  The top team from each group goes forward, along with the top three performing runners-up, to give eight teams. These eight will play in quarter-finals, then semi-finals and a final.  The draw for the knockout stages will be entirely random, I'm not seeding any team.

Here's the starting roster and the groups, all drawn randomly from the deck of 30 cards.  As you can see, Brazil got a very good draw as the only D20 country in a group of D6s, while Group A has no D20s.

Group A:
D12: Serbia, Denmark, Mexico
D6: Saudi [Arabia],  USA, Cameroon, 

Group B:
D12: Croatia, Switzerland
D20:  Spain, England, Germany, France

Group C:
D6: Tunisia
D12:  S Korea, Senegal, Japan
D20:  Netherlands, Uruguay

Group D:
D6:  Scotland, Ghana, Canada, Wales, Morocco
D20:  Brazil

Group E:
D6:  Ecuador
D12: Iran, Poland
D20: Portugal, Argentina, Belgium

Each team in the group plays the other teams once, so in a league of six, there are 15 games altogether.  There are three points for a win, one for a draw and none for a loss.  In the event of a tie on points, then goal difference will be taken into account.

Here are the results:

GROUP A

Serbia

1

USA

3

Cameroon

2

Denmark

2

Mexico

2

Saudi

1

Serbia

3

Cameroon

2

USA

3

Mexico

1

Denmark

2

Saudi

1

Serbia

4

Denmark

3

USA

1

Saudi

0

Mexico

3

Cameroon

1

Serbia

4

Mexico

1

USA

1

Denmark

3

Saudi

0

Cameroon

3

Serbia

1

Saudi

1

Cameroon

3

USA

0

Denmark

2

Mexico

4


GROUP B

Spain

3

Croatia

1

Switzerland

3

England

3

Germany

1

France

3

Spain

5

Switzerland

2

Croatia

4

Germany

0

England

5

France

2

Spain

3

England

2

Croatia

0

France

2

Switzerland

4

Germany

3

Spain

1

Germany

1

Croatia

2

England

5

France

5

Switzerland

3

Spain

3

France

5

Croatia

2

Switzerland

1

England

5

Germany

0


GROUP C

South Korea

2

Senegal

3

Japan

4

Netherlands

2

Uruguay

4

Tunisia

3

South Korea

2

Japan

1

Senegal

4

Uruguay

1

Tunisia

0

Netherlands

5

South Korea

1

Netherlands

4

Japan

3

Uruguay

0

Senegal

1

Tunisia

2

South Korea

2

Uruguay

3

Japan

1

Tunisia

0

Netherlands

0

Senegal

2

South Korea

2

Tunisia

3

Senegal

4

Japan

0

Uruguay

2

Netherlands

4

 GROUP D

Brazil

0

Scotland

3

Morocco

2

Canada

2

Wales

1

Ghana

2

Brazil

1

Morocco

0

Scotland

2

Wales

2

Canada

0

Ghana

0

Brazil

2

Canada

2

Scotland

3

Ghana

3

Wales

0

Morocco

2

Brazil

0

Wales

1

Scotland

2

Canada

3

Ghana

2

Morocco

1

Brazil

0

Ghana

0

Scotland

0

Morocco

2

Wales

0

Canada

2

GROUP E

Iran

3

Portugal

3

Argentina

2

Belgium

5

Ecuador

1

Poland

4

Iran

3

Argentina

5

Portugal

3

Ecuador

1

Belgium

2

Poland

3

Iran

4

Belgium

2

Portugal

4

Poland

1

Ecuador

2

Argentina

1

Iran

3

Ecuador

0

Portugal

4

Belgium

3

Poland

2

Argentina

2

Iran

1

Poland

4

Portugal

5

Argentina

2

Ecuador

0

Belgium

3

Final tables (this game is a statistician's or an analyst's dream!)

GROUP A

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Pts

Serbia

5

3

1

1

13

10

3

10

Mexico

5

3

0

2

11

11

0

9

USA

5

3

0

2

8

8

0

9

Cameroon

5

2

1

2

11

8

3

7

Denmark

5

2

1

2

12

12

0

7

Saudi

5

0

1

4

3

9

-6

1


GROUP B

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Pts

France

5

4

0

1

17

12

5

12

England

5

3

1

1

20

10

10

10

Spain

5

3

1

1

15

11

4

10

Croatia

5

2

0

3

9

11

-2

6

Switzerland

5

1

1

3

13

18

-5

4

Germany

5

0

1

4

5

17

-12

1


GROUP C

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Pts

Senegal

5

4

0

1

14

5

9

12

Netherlands

5

3

0

2

15

9

6

9

Japan

5

3

0

2

9

8

1

9

Tunisia

5

2

0

3

8

13

-5

6

Uruguay

5

2

0

3

10

16

-6

6

South Korea

5

1

0

4

9

14

-5

3


GROUP D

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Pts

Canada

5

2

3

0

9

6

3

9

Ghana

5

2

3

0

7

5

2

9

Morocco

5

2

1

2

7

5

2

7

Scotland

5

1

2

2

10

10

0

5

Brazil

5

1

2

2

3

6

-3

5

Wales

5

1

1

3

4

8

-4

4


GROUP E

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Pts

Portugal

5

4

1

0

19

10

9

13

Poland

5

3

1

1

14

10

4

10

Iran

5

2

1

2

14

14

0

7

Belgium

5

2

0

3

15

13

2

6

Argentina

5

1

1

3

12

17

-5

4

Ecuador

5

1

0

4

4

14

-10

3



Notes:

Serbia and Mexico were first and second in Group A, as would be expected as D12s.

Group B was won by France, and there were no major upsets.

Senegal won Group C, ahead of the two D20 teams Uruguay and Netherlands.  Senegal won four of their five games, including a 4-1 win over Uruguay and a 2-0 win against the Netherlands.

In a significant shock, Brazil game fifth in Group D.  As a D20 country playing D6s, Brazil were expected to come first, but only won one of their games.  It was very tight among the other teams, as they were all D6 teams and therefore had a high probability of drawing each other.  Six of the 15 games were drawn.

Portugal topped Group E easily, winning four of their five games and remaining unbeaten throughout.  Ecuador, the only D6 team in the group, came last, winning only one game.

The group winners were:
Serbia (D12), France (D20), Sengal (D6), Canada (D6) and Portugal (D20).

The best-performing runners-up were Mexico (A), England (B) and Netherlands (D).

The Quarter Finals, drawn from the eight qualifying teams:

Serbia vs Netherlands
France vs Senegal
Canada vs Portugal
Mexico vs Ghana

Serbia       2     Netherlands     2 (Netherlands 5-2 on penalties)
France       2    Senegal              1
Canada     1    Portugal             2
Mexico     1     Ghana                1 (Mexico 11-10 on penalties)

The Semi Finals, drawn from the four winners

Netherlands vs France
Portugal vs Mexico (who have done surprisingly well)

Netherlands 4 - France 5
Portugal 4 - Mexico 4 (Portugal win 3-2 on penalties)

The Final was unsurprisingly between two D20 teams, France and Portugal.

France 2 - Portugal 1


The dice:

Although I've described the teams as D6, D12 and D20, the dice aren't normal dice with values 1-6, 1-12 or 1-20.  Most football matches don't end with scores like Liverpool 18 - Man Utd 11.  The dice have duplicated numbers - here are the values for their sides:

D6:  0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3 --> mean = 1.5
D12: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 --> mean = 1.58 (19/12)
D20: 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5 --> mean = 2.7 (54/20)

In conclusion - this is a great game.  I didn't play it according to the instructions, but took the raw materials from the game and made it my own - and thoroughly enjoyed it.  I didn't analyse all the maths (what's the probability of a D6 team drawing against a D12 team? Or winning?) but rolled the dice, recorded the scores, and built and Excel spreadsheet to solve the league maths for me!  Was it fair?  Yes - the D6 teams have a chance of winning (and the multiple upsets during the championship show this) and the D20s have a chance of being knocked out (Brazil in a league of D6 teams).  The values on the dice make sure that every team has a chance of winning, even if it's slim.

In a future post, I'll play a cricket-by-dice game, and compare the results!

Other articles I've written looking at data and football

Checkout Conversion:  A Penalty Shootout
When should you switch off an A/B test?
The Importance of Being Earnest with your KPIs
Should Chelsea sack Jose Mourinho? (It was a relevant question at the time, and I looked at what the data said)
How Exciting is the English Premier League?  what does the data say about goals per game?